Petersburg is facing a long-term problem and it has nothing to do with a financial crisis. Rather the city, and to a lesser extent, the other two cities in the Tri-Cities region, are facing a long term population decline.
A decades-long exodus of residents from Petersburg is expected to continue well into the future, according to a new report. New projections from the the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service show that the three cities' populations are expected to stay flat or decline.
The Cooper Center researchers project a modest 2.5 percent increase in Hopewell's population from 22,901 in 2016 to 23,482 in 2040. Colonial Heights is expected to see a small decrease of 2.1 percent from 17,312 today to 16,955 in 2040.
And then there's Petersburg, which is forecast to see a nearly 11 percent drop in population from today's 32,018 to 28,613 by 2040 – extending a population decline that has already seen the city lose slightly more than 9,000 residents since the peak of 41,055 in 1980, a drop of 22 percent, or more than 1 in 5.
A continuing population decline for Petersburg represents a grave danger for the future of the city. A decline in population would result in a decline in property taxes or other local taxes. And a decline in population and revenue could lead officials to cut city services.
However, there is no guarantee that Petersburg’s population will continue to decline in the years ahead. First, the numbers are projections of current trends and the trend could change. Second, Petersburg’s three surrounding counties - Prince George, Dinwiddie and Chesterfield - are all projected to grow in population.
Currently, about 71 percent of the region's population lives in Chesterfield, a share that's expected to climb to 75 percent by 2040 as the county's population is expected to increase by another 30 percent over the next quarter-century.
The other two counties in the region are both forecast to see double-digit increases over that period: in Dinwiddie County, a 20 percent increase to 34,080 from 28,363 today, and in Prince George County, a 16 percent rise to 42,640 from today's 36,656.
And overall the region is expected to grow, fueled by the growth in the counties. The total population of the Tri-Cities region is expected to grow by about 110,000, or 23 percent, between now and 2040. The region's population, estimated at 471,213 as of 2016, is expected to top the half-million mark by 2030 and reach a total of 581,063 in 2040.
While the overall region grows, Petersburg must develop a strategy to stabilize and grow its population. As the city recovers from its immediate fiscal crisis, officials need to look long term on attracting residents to Petersburg.