Despite a year of headlines about mass shootings and riots, crime rates in America’s largest cities have remained the same since 2014 and are projected to decrease by 5.5 percent by year’s end.
A new analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law found that in the 30 largest cities, crime rates are on track to decline 5.5 percent, which would put them at half of what they were in 1990.
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While crime rates are down, the 2015 murder rate has gone up — it’s projected to increase 14.6 percent from last year. But the Brennan Center said the surge in percentage points isn’t as bad as it seems.
“In absolute terms, murder rates are so low that a small numerical increase leads to a large percentage change. Even with the 2015 increase, murder rates are roughly the same as they were in 2012. Since murder rates vary widely from year to year, one year’s increase is not evidence of a coming wave of violent crime,” the Center wrote in a post analyzing the data.
Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland, together account for nearly half of the increase in murders nationwide. Washington is projected to have 172 murders by the end of 2015, a 64 percent increase from the prior year, while Baltimore is projected to have 343 murders, a 62.8 percent increase.
“In some cities, murder is up. However, there is not yet sufficient evidence to conclude that these levels will persist in the future or are part of a national trend,” the report states. “Although headlines suggesting a coming crime wave make good copy, a look at the available data shows there is no evidence to support that claim.”