COLUMBIA — As Missouri held its annual statewide tornado drill Thursday afternoon, an MU climatologist said residents of the state might have a quieter spring than usual.
Tony Lupo, professor of atmospheric science at MU, expects La Niña to direct severe weather toward the east and north of mid-Missouri. La Niña is a phenomenon that occurs when the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual. It's essentially the opposite of El Niño, which is when the eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than usual, Lupo said.
Weather a severe storm with these tips from the Columbia/Boone County Office of Emergency Management.
La Niña generally pushes the jet stream toward the northern part of the Midwest, Lupo said. This could lead to more storms and severe weather in those areas.
"For us, this could possibly lead to a drier than normal spring, and that would also mean a drier than normal summer," Lupo said.
Still, there are other factors that help determine whether or not a severe storm will occur, National Weather Service meteorologist Jayson Gosselin said, and it is difficult to make accurate seasonal forecasts.
The weather service's three-month outlook shows that Columbia has an equal chance of experiencing above- or below-normal precipitation and temperatures over the next three months.
Not that this ever stopped the writers of the Farmers' Almanac, who predicted February's near-blizzard in mid-Missouri to the day. The almanac calls for significant snowfall March 24 to 27, intermittent dry spells in April and May and potentially severe thunderstorms April 20 to 23.
"This is just part of the natural ebb and flow of things with El Niño and La Niña," Lupo said.
No tornado has touched down in Columbia since Nov. 9, 1998, when a twister struck the southeast part of the city, destroying or severely damaging about 50 homes and businesses. The storm hit Southridge Subdivision particularly hard.
Even though it has been more than 12 years since a tornado touched down in Columbia, Lupo said the area doesn't enjoy any immunity, especially from storms coming from the north and west. The area between the Ozarks and St. Louis does receive some natural tornado protection, though.
"We are a bit shielded from tornadoes from the southwest due to the Ozark Plateau," Lupo said.