The struggle over electricity
One of the targets in the air raids carried out by the US and its allies on areas controlled by Islamic State (IS) was an associated gas plant to the south of Deir al‑Zor that provides fuel for the Jandar power station, located in a regime-controlled area to the south of Homs. The incident highlights the difficulty that the anti-IS coalition faces as it seeks to undermine the Islamist group through destroying its energy infrastructure, as such attacks also risk causing increased hardship for the civilian population across the entire country, and could provoke damaging retaliation from IS against infrastructure in other parts of the country.
The air raid, on September 28th, struck the entrance and prayer area of the plant, which is known as Conoco after the US company that built it and operated it for a period in the early 2000s. It does not appear that the actual plant was targeted, which suggests that the intention was to disrupt the plant's operations rather than destroy it. Other raids have targeted refineries built by the extreme jihadi group over the past three years, as distinct from established energy infrastructure.
Electricity infrastructure increasingly in the firing line
Over the past three years of conflict in Syria electricity generation and natural gas production have been less severely affected than many other sectors of the economy. In areas of conflict there have been agreements—both tacit and explicit—between regime and opposition forces on safeguarding the supply of natural gas to power stations and on the transmission and distribution of electricity on a national basis. However, as the conflict has gone on, with increased violence and fragmentation, the gas and electricity infrastructure is starting to suffer.
The most recent official data on the state of the power sector are contained in the 2013 annual report of the Public Establishment for Electricity Generation and Transmission (PEEGT). This shows that power generation fell by 30% in 2013 to 29,922 gwh from 42,092 gwh in 2012. It had fallen by a more modest 12.5% in 2012 after peaking at just over 49,000 gwh the previous year.
The 2013 report does not include details on the fuel used in Syria's power stations, but the data from the previous year indicated that natural gas was the most important source, accounting for 6.3m tonnes oil equivalent (toe), compared with 2.4m tonnes of fuel oil. According to figures issued by the Ministry of Petroleum, almost all of the natural gas produced in Syria is used for power generation. Natural gas production reached a peak of 8.7bn cu metres (about 7.8m toe) in 2011, falling to 7.6bn cu metres in 2012 and 5.9bn cu metres in 2013. In the first half of 2014, natural gas production was 2.7bn cu metres, according to the ministry. Production has since been affected by an assault by IS on the Al Shaer gasfield and production facilities in July, as well as by the probable drop in output from the Conoco plant.
Most of the major power projects carried out over the past 20 years have involved the construction of combined cycle plants, based on gas turbines, with additional power coming from steam turbines driven by heat recovered from the primary cycle. Combined cycle plants now account for almost 40% of Syria's effective generating capacity of 7,939 mw. Steam turbine plants, most of which run on natural gas, with fuel oil as back-up, account for just under 3,000 mw of available capacity, and most of the remainder is made up of stand-alone gas turbine plants (640 mw) and three hydroelectric plants on the Euphrates, which have combined operating capacity of 1,080 mw.
The combined cycle plants, most of which are located around Damascus and Homs, contributed almost half of the power generated in 2013—14,342 gwh out of 29,922 gwh. These plants include Deir Ali, south of Damascus, which is the most modern in the country and whose output increased in 2013 to 4,203 gwh, making it the largest contributor to the grid. At the end of 2010, a contract was awarded to Ansaldo of Italy and Metka of Greece to build a 750‑mw combined cycle plant in Deir al‑Zor, but that project is now on hold.
Electricity plants close to conflict zones are worst affected
The plant that has been worst affected by the conflict is the 1,065‑mw power station to the east of Aleppo, the output of which fell by 60% in 2013. The plant lies in one of the most bitterly contested conflict zones, and it depends on lengthy and vulnerable supply lines for natural gas or fuel oil. The Al-Zara plant, between Homs and Hama, has also suffered damage, which has reduced its available capacity from 1,100 mw to 660 mw.
The most important power facilities in the IS area of control are the hydroelectric plants on the Euphrates. The largest is the main Euphrates dam (sometimes referred to as the Tabqa Dam), at the southern end of Lake Assad, close to Raqqa, which has been under IS control since mid-2013. There is a smaller plant, the Baath Dam, nearby, and a more recently built dam further upstream, Tishreen. These three plants accounted for 9.2% of Syria's power generated in 2013. However, poor rainfall over the 2013/14 winter has lowered the water level in Lake Assad, which is likely to have impaired the performance of the main Euphrates dam during the course of 2014.
The intervention of the US and its Western and Arab allies has affected many of the dynamics of the Syrian conflict. In the energy sphere, there has been an effort to disrupt IS's logistics and financing through attacking its refineries. These attacks could lead to fuel shortages in much of eastern and northern Syria, which could prompt IS to retaliate by seeking to seize control of gasfields and power stations in regime-held areas, or by destroying such facilities—an outcome that would only increase the suffering of the already hard-pressed local population, and potentially even prompt a backlash against the air strikes.