Why our Predictions Often Go Awry
1. We have an optimism bias: we anticipate something close to "best case scenarios."
2. We underestimate how people adapt to both negative and positive events.
3. We have a poor understanding of probability.
4. We have a "presentism" bias: the emotions and attitudes of the present infuse our visions of the future.
5. The future is chance-filled and very hard to predict.