On January 30, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the “coronavirus outbreak (to be) a public health emergency of international concern.”
On Sunday, US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Anthony Fauci said the coronavirus “almost certainly is going to be a pandemic.”
The WHO defines a pandemic as a “worldwide spread of a new disease.”
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) calls it “a disease that spreads across several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people.”
Britain’s Health and Safety Executive says a viral outbreak can be characterized as a pandemic if it’s “markedly different from recently circulating strains,” notably if “humans have little or no immunity” to it.
The NYT quoted former CDC director Thomas Frieden, saying it’s “increasingly unlikely (that the coronavirus) can be contained,” adding:
“It is therefore likely that it will spread, as flu and other organisms do, but we still don’t know how far, wide, or deadly it will be.”
The term pandemic applies to a disease that affects large numbers of people worldwide — clearly not applicable to the coronavirus outbreak based on evidence so far. See below.
According to Mayo Clinic’s Dr. Pritish Tosh:
“In epidemiologic terms, an outbreak refers to a number of cases that exceeds what would be expected.”
“A pandemic is when there is an outbreak that affects most of the world.”
“We use the term endemic when there is an infection within a geographic location that is existing perpetually.”
An epidemic refers to an infectious disease outbreak in a particular country or community.
How do the above definitions apply to the coronavirus outbreak in China?
Here are the latest numbers through Monday: 20,622 confirmed cases, 426 dead in China, the outbreak mostly in Wuhan and surrounding areas.
Cases in other countries aren’t anywhere near epidemic or pandemic levels. Judge for yourself:
Australia – 12, mostly individuals who returned from Wuhan or Hubei province
Cambodia – 1
Canada – 4
Finland – 1
France – 6
Germany – 10
India – 3
Italy – 2
Japan — 20
Malaysia – 8 (all Chinese nationals)
Nepal – 1
The Philippines – 2
Russia – 2
Singapore – 18
South Korea – 15
Spain – 1
Sri Lanka – 1
Sweden – 1
Taiwan – 10
Thailand – 19
UAE – 5
UK – 2
US – 11
Vietnam – 8
Most of the above cases apply to Chinese nationals or individuals who returned from the country, in most or all cases from Wuhan.
In response to a question asked me by a friend on the seriousness of the coronavirus outbreak to people in the US, I explained that the chance of being in an auto accident or harmed by one at home is far greater.
I also stressed that establishment media, especially US cable channels, are the most unreliable sources of information on the coronavirus outbreak, featuring fear-mongering reports.