The global outbreak of COVID-19 began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and affected the entire world in a short time. Over time, the emergence of new species of the disease, the pace of response to it has also strongly affected, and with the emergence of the newest species called Omicron. Knowing and reviewing the system and publishing publications in the community is essential for sound policies. It is necessary to investigate the spread of COVID-19 to make proper policies. System dynamic can be adopted as an approach to the behavior evaluation of the COVID-19 pandemic. The present study introduces a system dynamic model to explore the effects of different factors on the pandemic and therapeutic and non-therapeutic modalities. Vaccination is evaluated as the main approach to prevent the disease. The influential factors of pandemic prevention and control are examined based on the SEIR model and policies such as vaccination. The safest way to prevent this epidemic is vaccination. Therefore, a policy that benefits the entire population and will be necessary is producing and purchasing vaccines. From 19 July 2021, the rate of vaccine imports to Iran has increased significantly, and therefore it is predicted that by the end of 2022, Iran's general vaccination will end, after which the number of cases and mortality rates will decline. Vaccines are the ultimate solution to contagious diseases to control disease spread and provide safety to deal with the infection. The results suggested that the fatality rate of the susceptible population was reduced by vaccination and protective protocols. Thus, this paper aims to analyze factors influencing the spread of COVID-19 and prevent the disease.
Yavarian, J., Shafiei-Jandaghi, N.-Z., Sadeghi, K., Malekshahi, S.S., Salimi, V., Nejati, A., Aja-Minejad, F., Ghavvami, N., Saadatmand, F. and Mahfouzi, S., "First cases of sars-cov-2 in iran, 2020: Case series report", Iranian Journal of Public Health, Vol. 49, No. 8, (2020), 1564, doi: 10.18502/ijph.v49i8.3903.
Miller, M., "2019 novel coronavirus covid-19 (2019-ncov) data repository: Johns hopkins university center for systems science and engineering", Bulletin-Association of Canadian Map Libraries and Archives, No. 164, (2020), 47-51. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Chen, N., Zhou, M., Dong, X., Qu, J., Gong, F., Han, Y., Qiu, Y., Wang, J., Liu, Y. and Wei, Y., "Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in wuhan, china: A descriptive study", The lancet, Vol. 395, No. 10223, (2020), 507-513, doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30211-7.
Adekunle, I.A., Onanuga, A.T., Akinola, O.O. and Ogunbanjo, O.W., "Modelling spatial variations of coronavirus disease (covid-19) in africa", Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 729, (2020), 138998, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138998.
Bora, A. and Bezboruah, T., "Evaluating the reliability of pwcov: A loosely coupled software as a service for covid-19 data processing system", International Journal of Engineering, Transactions C: Aspects, Vol. 33, No. 12, (2020), 2496-2502, doi: 10.5829/IJE.2020.33.12C.09.
Nozari, H., Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, R. and Gharemani-Nahr, J., "A neutrosophic fuzzy programming method to solve a multi-depot vehicle routing model under uncertainty during the covid-19 pandemic", International Journal of Engineering, Transactions B: Applications, Vol. 35, No. 2, (2022), 360-371, doi: 10.5829/IJE.2022.35.02B.12.
Qingjie, Y., Wei, F., Chunhui, L., Huaming, M., Jinglong, L., Suxin, W., Lian, G., Yilin, W., Huawen, L. and Qing, X., "“Five-early” model: The magic weapon against covid-19", Iranian Journal of Public Health, Vol. 49, No. Suppl 1, (2020), 82, doi: 10.18502/ijph.v49iS1.3673.
Pirnia, B., Pirnia, K., Malekanmehr, P. and Zahiroddin, A., "Challenges of differential diagnosis, symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) or cannabinoid hyperemesis syndrome (chs)? A rare case report", Iranian Journal of Public Health, Vol. 49, No. Suppl 1, (2020), 109, doi: 10.18502/ijph.v49iS1.3677.
Safaie, N., "Analysis of the effects of covid-19 virus on the import, export and labor in iran using system dynamic approach", Journal of Control, Vol. 14, No. 5, (2021), 107-120, doi: 10.52547/joc.14.5.107.
Sajadi, H. and Hartley, K., "Covid-19 pandemic response in iran: A dynamic perspective on policy capacity", Journal of Asian Public Policy, (2021), 1-22, doi: 10.1080/17516234.2021.1930682.
Mahase, E., "Covid-19: How many variants are there, and what do we know about them?", Bmj, Vol. 374, No., (2021), doi.
He, X., Hong, W., Pan, X., Lu, G. and Wei, X., "Sars‐cov‐2 omicron variant: Characteristics and prevention", MedComm, (2021), doi: 10.1002/mco2.110.
Batchelder, A., Gonzalez, J., Palma, A., Schoenbaum, E. and Lounsbury, D.W., "A social ecological model of syndemic risk affecting women with and at-risk for hiv in impoverished urban communities", American Journal of Community Psychology, Vol. 56, No. 3, (2015), 229-240, doi: 10.1007/s10464-015-9750-y.
Weeks, M.R., Li, J., Lounsbury, D., Green, H.D., Abbott, M., Berman, M., Rohena, L., Gonzalez, R., Lang, S. and Mosher, H., "Using participatory system dynamics modeling to examine the local hiv test and treatment care continuum in order to reduce community viral load", American Journal of Community Psychology, Vol. 60, No. 3-4, (2017), 584-598, doi: 10.1002/ajcp.12204.
Sihombing, L.B., Malczynski, L., Jacobson, J., Soeparto, H.G. and Saptodewo, D.T., "An analysis of the spread of covid-19 and its effects on indonesia’s economy: A dynamic simulation estimation", Available at SSRN 3597004, (2020).
Kozlovskyi, S., Bilenko, D., Kuzheliev, M., Lavrov, R., Kozlovskyi, V., Mazur, H. and Taranych, A., "The system dynamic model of the labor migrant policy in economic growth affected by covid-19", Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, Vol. 6, No. Special Issue (Covid-19), (2020), 95-106, https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=735308
Niwa, M., Hara, Y., Sengoku, S. and Kodama, K., "Effectiveness of social measures against covid-19 outbreaks in selected japanese regions analyzed by system dynamic modeling", International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 17, No. 17, (2020), 6238, doi: 10.3390/ijerph17176238.
Cooper, I., Mondal, A. and Antonopoulos, C.G., "Dynamic tracking with model-based forecasting for the spread of the covid-19 pandemic", Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Vol. 139, (2020), 110298, doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110298.
Engbert, R., Rabe, M.M., Kliegl, R. and Reich, S., "Sequential data assimilation of the stochastic seir epidemic model for regional covid-19 dynamics", Bulletin of mathematical biology, Vol. 83, No. 1, (2021), 1-16, doi. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063768
COVID, I., Team, F. and Hay, S.I., "Covid-19 scenarios for the united states", MedRxiv, (2020), doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9.
Geier, M.R. and Geier, D.A., "Respiratory conditions in coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19): Important considerations regarding novel treatment strategies to reduce mortality", Medical Hypotheses, Vol. 140, (2020), 109760, doi: 10.1016/j.mehy.2020.109760.
Ali, I. and Alharbi, O.M., "Covid-19: Disease, management, treatment, and social impact", Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 728, (2020), 138861, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138861.
Bastos, S.B. and Cajueiro, D.O., "Modeling and forecasting the early evolution of the covid-19 pandemic in brazil", Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, No. 1, (2020), 1-10, doi: doi:10.1038/s41598-020-76257-1.
Chanu, A.L. and Singh, R.B., "Stochastic approach to study control strategies of covid-19 pandemic in india", Epidemiology & Infection, Vol. 148, (2020), doi: 10.1017/S0950268820001946.
Pruyt, E. and Hamarat, C., "The influenza a (h1n1) v pandemic: An exploratory system dynamics approach", in Proceedings of the 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, Korea, 2 System Dynamics Society. (2010).
Ghaffarzadegan, N. and Rahmandad, H., "Simulation‐based estimation of the early spread of covid‐19 in iran: Actual versus confirmed cases", System Dynamics Review, Vol. 36, No. 1, (2020), 101-129, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040956
Sy, C., Bernardo, E., Miguel, A., San Juan, J.L., Mayol, A.P., Ching, P.M., Culaba, A., Ubando, A. and Mutuc, J.E., "Policy development for pandemic response using system dynamics: A case study on covid-19", Process Integration and Optimization for Sustainability, Vol. 4, No. 4, (2020), 497-501, doi: 10.1007/s41660-020-00130-x.
Gkini, C., "Health behaviour theories and the norwegian response to covid-19: A system dynamics modeling approach", The University of Bergen, (2020),
Hadiwibowo, J.C., Halim, S., Yahya, B.N., Agustin, K. and Sahputra, I.H., "A policy strategy evaluation for covid-19 pandemic in the city of surabaya using vensim ventana dynamic system simulation", in 2021 3rd East Indonesia Conference on Computer and Information Technology (EIConCIT), IEEE., (2021), 215-221.
Fathollahi-Fard, A.M., Hajiaghaei-Keshteli, M., Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, R. and Smith, N.R., "Bi-level programming for home health care supply chain considering outsourcing", Journal of Industrial Information Integration, Vol. 25, (2022), 100246, doi: 10.1016/j.jii.2021.100246.
Fathollahi-Fard, A.M., Ahmadi, A. and Karimi, B., "Sustainable and robust home healthcare logistics: A response to the covid-19 pandemic", Symmetry, Vol. 14, No. 2, (2022), 193, doi. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym14020193
Mosallanezhad, B., Chouhan, V.K., Paydar, M.M. and Hajiaghaei-Keshteli, M., "Disaster relief supply chain design for personal protection equipment during the covid-19 pandemic", Applied Soft Computing, Vol. 112, (2021), 107809, doi. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2021.107809
Muniyappan, A., Sundarappan, B., Manoharan, P., Hamdi, M., Raahemifar, K., Bourouis, S. and Varadarajan, V., "Stability and numerical solutions of second wave mathematical modeling on covid-19 and omicron outbreak strategy of pandemic: Analytical and error analysis of approximate series solutions by using hpm", Mathematics, Vol. 10, No. 3, (2022), 343, doi. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10030343
Currie, C.S., Fowler, J.W., Kotiadis, K., Monks, T., Onggo, B.S., Robertson, D.A. and Tako, A.A., "How simulation modelling can help reduce the impact of covid-19", Journal of Simulation, Vol. 14, No. 2, (2020), 83-97, doi: 10.1080/17477778.2020.1751570.
Sterman, J., "System dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", (2002).
Bruzzone, A.G., Frascio, M., Longo, F., Chiurco, A., Zanoni, S., Zavanella, L., Fadda, P., Fancello, G., Falcone, D. and De Felice, F., "Disaster and emergency management simulation in industrial plants", in Proc. 26th Eur. Model. Simul. Symp. (2014), 649.
Atun, R.A., Lebcir, R.M., McKee, M., Habicht, J. and Coker, R.J., "Impact of joined-up hiv harm reduction and multidrug resistant tuberculosis control programmes in estonia: System dynamics simulation model", Health Policy, Vol. 81, No. 2-3, (2007), 207-217, doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2006.05.021.
Junapudi, S.S., Junapudi, S., Ega, K. and Chidipi, B., "Major cardiac concerns in therapy and vaccinations for covid-19", Metabolism Open, Vol. 11, (2021), 100102, doi: 10.1016/j.metop.2021.100102.
Abta, A., Kaddar, A. and Alaoui, H.T., "Global stability for delay sir and seir epidemic models with saturated incidence rates", Electronic Journal of Differential Equations, Vol. 2012, No. 23, (2012), 1-13, http://ejde.math.unt.eduftp ejde.math.txstate.edu
Allahi, F., Fateh, A., Revetria, R. and Cianci, R., "The covid-19 epidemic and evaluating the corresponding responses to crisis management in refugees: A system dynamic approach", Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management, (2021), https://doi.org/10.1108/JHLSCM-09-2020-0077
Satrio, P. and Suryani, E., "Penerapan model sistem dinamik untuk melakukan pemeliharaan operasional aset unit transmisi dan visualisasi luaran model dengan menggunakan dashboard (studi kasus: Pt. Pln (persero) app semarang)", Jurnal Teknik ITS, Vol. 6, No. 2, (2017), A325-A330.
Mirzaei, F., Khodadadi, I., Majdoub, N., Vafaei, S.A., Tayebinia, H. and Abbasi-Oshaghi, E., "Role of glucagon-like peptide-1 (glp-1) agonists in the management of diabetic patients with or without covid-19", The Open Medicinal Chemistry Journal, Vol. 15, No. 1, (2021), doi: 10.1016/j.metop.2021.100122.
Kennedy, D.M., Zambrano, G.J., Wang, Y. and Neto, O.P., "Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on covid-19 transmission dynamics", Journal of Clinical Virology, Vol. 128, (2020), 104440, doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3595898.
Akbari, M., Safaie, N., Jahani, Z., & Saadatmand, M. R. (2022). An Analytical Model for Confronting the Omicron Variant During COVID-19 Pandemic: A System Dynamic Approach. International Journal of Engineering, 35(8), 1533-1546. doi: 10.5829/ije.2022.35.08b.10
M. Akbari; N. Safaie; Z. Jahani; M. R. Saadatmand. "An Analytical Model for Confronting the Omicron Variant During COVID-19 Pandemic: A System Dynamic Approach". International Journal of Engineering, 35, 8, 2022, 1533-1546. doi: 10.5829/ije.2022.35.08b.10
Akbari, M., Safaie, N., Jahani, Z., Saadatmand, M. R. (2022). 'An Analytical Model for Confronting the Omicron Variant During COVID-19 Pandemic: A System Dynamic Approach', International Journal of Engineering, 35(8), pp. 1533-1546. doi: 10.5829/ije.2022.35.08b.10
Akbari, M., Safaie, N., Jahani, Z., Saadatmand, M. R. An Analytical Model for Confronting the Omicron Variant During COVID-19 Pandemic: A System Dynamic Approach. International Journal of Engineering, 2022; 35(8): 1533-1546. doi: 10.5829/ije.2022.35.08b.10