Every year for the next 70 years, someone on the heavily industrialized Southeast Side will develop cancer because of the neighborhood`s air pollution, according to the first Chicago-area federal study of the potential health effects of air pollution.
The report, issued Monday by the Chicago office of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, predicts a total of 85 lung and other cancer cases in a 65- square-mile area during the next seven decades as a result of airborne carcinogens from steel mills, other industries, autos and other sources.
``It confirms what we thought was true,`` said Marian Byrnes, speaking for a coalition of seven Southeast Side community groups. ``We`re grateful the EPA has provided the evidence that we are indeed exposed to high levels of pollution and suffer more cases of cancer as a result.``
EPA officials said the 393,000 residents of the study area should not be alarmed by the results.
``It`s certainly something we need to work on in the long-term,`` said David Kee, director of the agency`s air and radiation division. ``But there`s no need for people to move away.``
To put the figures in perspective, Kee said that about 130,000 residents of the study area-bounded by 87th Street, Western Avenue, Sibley Boulevard, and the Indiana state line-will probably develop some form of cancer regardless of the pollution level. The study area goes beyond the traditional boundaries of the Southeast Side but was concentrated there.
One American in three has cancer at some point in his or her life, Kee said.
Results were obtained by studying the sources of known or suspected carcinogenic air pollutants in a large area of the South and West Sides and the south and southwest suburbs to determine the level of air pollution at 169 points on the Southeast Side. Based on statistical models of cancer incidence in animals and humans, those levels were then converted into ``risk factors.`` The one-square kilometer area around 114th Street and Torrence Avenue-where there are no residences-had the highest risk factor, a 1-in-200 chance of developing cancer from air pollution. The Acme Steel Co. coke plant in the area is the source of most of the pollutants, Kee said.
The study found that the populated area with the highest number of predicted cancer cases attributable to air pollution is the square kilometer around 110th Street and Avenue O, where four residents out of the area`s 4,000 residents will probably develop cancer over the next 70 years.
Kee said efforts to reduce coke-oven emissions by installing tighter oven doors and changing operating methods are under discussion. Among other substances, the known carcinogen benzene is a by-product of coke plants.
An expansion of the auto-emissions testing program may also be necessary. After coke plant operations, auto emissions is one of the leading causes of the predicted cancers.
``There`s no silver bullet that will take out all of the cancer risks,``
Kee said. ``There`s no easy route.``
Following a briefing at EPA offices in the Loop, reaction from local residents, manufacturers, and environmental groups was largely favorable.
``It didn`t indicate that there was a great problem,`` said Tom Reid of the Illinois Manufacturers Association. ``Most people aren`t exposed to these concentrations 24 hours a day, seven days a week for the rest of their life. We should look at these risks along with other risks that we may be faced with. It`s a matter of where we want to put our priorities.``
``I`m afraid this study is just going to gather dust on some shelf,``
said Kevin Greene of Citizens for a Better Environment.