- National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, BAS, 3 Acad. G. Bonchev, 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria
- Received 19 August 2011. Revised 5 March 2012. Accepted 8 March 2012. Available online 21 March 2012.
The strong sensitivity of the Earth’s radiation balance to variations in the lower stratospheric ozone—reported previously—is analysed here by the use of non-linear statistical methods. Our non-linear model of the land air temperature (T)—driven by the measured Arosa total ozone (TOZ)—explains 75% of total variability of Earth’s T variations during the period 1926–2011. We have analysed also the factors which could influence the TOZ variability and found that the strongest impact belongs to the multi-decadal variations of galactic cosmic rays. Constructing a statistical model of the ozone variability, we have been able to predict the tendency in the land air T evolution till the end of the current decade. Results show that Earth is facing a weak cooling of the surface T by 0.05–0.25 K (depending on the ozone model) until the end of the current solar cycle. A new mechanism for O3 influence on climate is proposed.
Fig. 3. Measured Arosa TOZ (dashed line with filled dots) and modelled TOZ by two non-linear models: (i) Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine—EESC (thick curve); (ii) Galactic cosmic rays—GCR (thin continuous line with filled diamonds). On the right of the vertical bar are shown TOZ predictions till the end of the current decade calculated by TOZ autoregressive model (opened dots), by EESC model (dotted curve) and by GCR model (filled triangles).
.Fig. 4. Measured northern hemisphere land air temperature record (dashed line with filled dots) compared with modelled one’s by two non-linear models: EESC model (thick continuous line) and GCR model (thin continuous line with filed diamonds). On the right of the vertical bar are given land T predictions till the end of the current solar cycle calculated by: autoregressive model (dashed line with opened dots), EESC model (thick dotted line), GCR model (filled triangles).
I need to read some blurb on copyright before I add any further text from the paper or full size plots.
[update by co-mod, as far as I can tell the author is Dr. Nataliya Andreeva Kilifarska who has a page at Geophysical Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. She has an interesting looking history starting out as a meteorologist. The whole department might be worthy of a good look to see what they have been doing.