The Study: Jihae Shin of Wisconsin School of Business and her coauthor, Katherine Milkman of Wharton, gave 160 university students a sentence-unscrambling task and promised an energy bar to those who performed it well. Before receiving the text to work on, half the participants were asked to think about different ways they could obtain free food on campus should they fail to earn the snack. People prompted to think about those backup plans unscrambled significantly fewer sentences, on average, than people who hadn’t been asked to formulate a plan B.
The Challenge: When we think about what we’ll do if we fail to achieve our goals, are we less likely to succeed? Can backup plans backfire? Professor Shin, defend your research.
Shin: That was our hypothesis, and it proved true not only in this study but in follow-up experiments that took the same approach but offered people different rewards—saved time or an extra dollar in their pockets. We think that when achieving a goal requires work, not luck, making a backup plan can hurt performance by reducing the desire for that goal. We saw this in our third study, in which we surveyed participants about how much they wanted the promised reward of $1. Those who had been asked to think through backup plans reported that they wanted the cash less than others. They might not have been aware of this shift in their mindset while working, but they were less motivated, so they put in less effort, which hurt their results.
HBR: So they weren’t just distracted? Or tired from too much thinking?
We did test to see whether cognitive fatigue could be causing the poor performance, but participants asked to brainstorm about other things before unscrambling the sentences did just fine. That confirms that cognitive fatigue wasn’t driving our effects.
But aren’t we taught the importance of not putting all our eggs in one basket?
There are certainly important benefits to making backup plans. One is the psychological comfort it brings: People think, “I’m going to be OK even if I fail, because I can then do X or Y.” It reduces the perceived uncertainty of the situation. Another benefit is that if you fail, you don’t have to dwell on it; you can quickly implement your backup plan. However, the costs of making backup plans haven’t previously been examined, and we believe that acknowledging both costs and benefits can lead to better, more informed decision making.
But the tasks in your experiments were pretty simple and the rewards were—no offense—sort of lame. Would you get the same results if you studied people in high-stakes situations?
We would actually predict that the effect would be more significant, and when we conducted a separate survey, interviewing people from the general public about their real goals, we found correlational evidence supporting that hypothesis. Those who had thought through backup plans reported devoting less effort to the goals they were trying to achieve: getting a promotion, earning a graduate degree, or becoming a vet, for example. Also, the participants in our lab studies spent less than 10 minutes thinking about their backup plans—a tiny investment of their attention—yet it significantly affected their motivation and performance on goal pursuit. In real life, when the stakes are higher, we would expect people to devote more time and energy to mapping out detailed backup plans. And as that reduces effort over a sustained period, it could result in even more significant negative effects. The idea for this research actually came from my own experience in the job market. As I was pursuing an academic faculty job, I had the option of thinking about a backup plan—pursuing an industry job—but I found myself not wanting to, because I worried that it might make me less determined to achieve my primary goal.
So, to use another cliché, we need to always act as if failure is not an option?
The punch line of this research could certainly be this: If you prepare for failure, you may be more likely to fail. But the practical advice we would give is more nuanced than that. We’re not suggesting that you always avoid making backup plans. But maybe you could hold off on doing so until you’ve put as much effort as possible into your primary goal. If you’re a manager of a team working toward a certain objective, consider asking a second group, consisting of different people, to come up with the backup plan rather than your A team. If you’re an entrepreneur, think about committing to one start-up idea for a period of time, instead of planning for and being ready to jump to another project as soon as things go south.
My aunt always told my cousin, an aspiring dancer, that she should get a teaching degree to fall back on. Was she wrong?
Success and performance depend on many factors. For some people, not making a backup plan might indeed be beneficial in helping them put their best effort forward. Some parents assume that having a backup plan is always a good thing, yielding nothing but positive outcomes. Given our findings, we’d suggest that they at least consider the possible negative effects.
Aside from your job search, have these findings changed how you operate at work?
Yes, I now sometimes try to delay making a backup plan until after I’ve really done everything I can to accomplish my first goal. For example, when Katy and I were working on this research project, I didn’t think about other projects we could do if this one failed.
I don’t have another Q&A to run in September if this one turns out badly.
Good. That means you’ll make sure it doesn’t.