ATLANTA -- If the lights go out in Georgia, it won't be any time soon.
A study by a pair of Georgia economists says the state has big enough electricity reserves to avoid California-style ''rolling blackouts'' -- at least through 2004.
If a current request by the Georgia Power Co. to crank out more power is approved, they said, the state will have enough electricity through 2007.
''Forever's a long time, but we don't think there's any possibility that (blackouts) will happen here, at least for the next seven to nine years,'' said Julius Wright, who, along with University of Georgia economics professor Albert Danielsen, released the study's findings Wednesday.
The pair conducted the Georgia Power-funded study using public documents to determine how much the state's demand for electricity would increase compared to how much capacity power companies have -- and will have -- to generate that electricity.
Using information provided by Georgia Power, Savannah Electric, Oglethorpe Power and the Municipal Electric Association of Georgia, they determined that Georgia's power supply will meet peak needs with 15 percent to spare for most of that time.
Next summer, demand may cause the reserve to dip to about 13 or 14 percent, Wright said.
Unlike California, Danielsen and Wright said Georgia has continued to add power sources to meet growing demand and that Georgia's power plant permitting process is faster than California's -- allowing new plants to be approved as quickly as in two years.
''Here in Georgia, the siting of plants, building them ... has been much easier,'' said Danielsen, who said California also was reluctant to build new plants because of a move toward privatizing the power industry.
One of the newer plants, Plant Dahlberg, was dedicated last year near Center in southern Jackson County. The automated $200 million plant uses natural gas to generate electricity. It eventually will be able to generate 1,200 megawatts of electricity; one megawatt is enough electricity to power 200 houses for an hour.
California's blackouts, in which portions of the state were scheduled to go without power so others could meet heavy demands, opened eyes nationwide about the need to conserve energy, particularly at peak hours, according to Wright.
''The thing California has done is sort of wake up the national conscience that energy is important and conserving energy is important,'' Danielsen said.
Concerns about the blackouts led Georgia Power to fund the study.
''There was a lot of speculation earlier this year ... about the 'next California,' '' said Georgia Power spokesman John Sell. ''What we did is we said, 'Let's go get a couple of experts.' ''
Wright is the president of J.A. Wright and Associates and a former utilities commissioner and state senator in North Carolina. One of his most recent projects was a report for the California legislature on the causes of that state's energy crisis.
Danielsen is director of the James C. Bonbright Utilities Center in the Terry College at the University of Georgia. He is an emeritus professor of economics and a consultant to the U.S. Department of Energy.
This article published in the Athens Banner-Herald on Thursday, June 21, 2001.
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