KEITHSBURG, ILL. — Dolan Diehl, who farms 450 acres of sandy soil just a mile east of the Mississippi River, thrust his hand into earth turned ash-gray by the heat and dry weather and removed a 3-inch soybean plant, its limp roots hanging off a withered stalk.
``See what it`s doing to them? They`re dead. These beans should be like that,`` he said, holding his hands 8 inches apart. He estimated that even if normal rainfall comes back-which weather forecasters aren`t predicting anytime soon-he`ll lose 50 percent of his bean crop and 30 percent of his corn crop this year.
The drought of 1988 is about to enter its critical phase in Illinois. For farmers like Diehl who work marginal, sandy land, it may already be too late. But what is happening here will strike virtually all farmers in this rich agricultural state unless they receive significant rainfall during the next three weeks.
Corn is about to pollinate-the silking process that develops kernels on the cobs. Soybeans, a heartier plant, can go a little longer without water, but yields will plummet unless the rains start by July 15, agricultural experts said.
``By July 4th, without rain, 20 percent of the crop will be gone,`` said Richard Godke, cooperative extension adviser for Mercer County, which is just south of the Quad Cities area. ``A week later, it will be 35 percent.``
The 1,600 farmers in Mercer County are a microcosm of the state`s farm belt, where drought, like rain, hits unevenly. Farms in the county lie near the Mississippi River, where sandy soils dry out quickly and do not hold water well when it does rain. They have been the first to reel under the impact of the drought. But farther inland, even the farms on the ``good black earth`` of the Illinois prairie will begin to experience the same massive crop failures unless the rains come soon.
``Even if we get rain, I`ll get 13 to 15 bushels (of soybeans per acre)
off this field,`` said Diehl, sweeping his arm across the parched earth.
``I`ve gotten 35. And if we don`t get rain by July 15, I can kiss this one goodbye.``
Even if it should start raining, farmers are uncertain and apprehensive about the effects of this year`s drought.
During the last major dry spell in 1983, hot, windy and dry weather struck during the pollination season and continued during the prime growing months of July and August. There had been a wet spring.
Average corn yields in Illinois that year fell 39.7 percent from the previous year, while soybeans yields fell 23.4 percent, according to the Illinois Agricultural Statistics Service.
This year, on the other hand, much of Illinois received just 10 percent of normal rainfall during May and June. Even the least hard-hit areas of the state received only half the normal rain, according to Wayne Wendland, head of the state water survey.
As a result, stunted corn stalks and dwarfed soybean plants dot the landscape as the thirsty plants expend their growing energy in sending roots lower and lower in search of water. Illinois will send these pygmies marching into the prime growing season.
``Corn was shoulder high a year ago. Now it`s waist high and, in some cases, knee high,`` said Alan Puzey, who owns 720 acres in Fairmount, 120 miles south of Chicago. ``The question is what has it done to our potential. Most of us have never lived through these conditions.``
``Everyone says the next two
weeks are critical,`` said Gary Benjamin, the agricultural economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. ``But there`s uncertainty about what the recoverability will be for a corn or soybean plant if we have rain right now.``
Diehl, who at 69 can remember the Dust Bowl droughts of 1934 and 1936, said this is worse. ``Then, we didn`t get it until July and August. This time, we didn`t get rain in April, May and June,`` he said.
Many experts said modern hybrids, better subsoil conditions and early planting mitigated some of the disastrous effects of the early dry weather. But a continuation of the prolonged dry spell would wipe out those advantages. ``In areas that are running from 8 to 12 percent of average rain, the moisture in the uppermost 6 inches of soil for all intents and purposes is gone,`` Wendland said. ``There is some moisture from 6 to 20 inches, but that will be depleted by the end of the month.``
Estimates of the crop damage for the whole state already range as high as 30 percent. But Farm Bureau officials discounted that, saying most farmers are counting on the rains finally falling and saving most of the crop.
``Everyone will hedge until we see what happens after July 4th when pollination is supposed to occur on corn,`` said Dennis Vercler, a spokesman for the state`s largest farm organization. ``But there`s no doubt the drought is setting the stage for real problems on yields.``