3-D printed organs. Brain chips providing superhuman abilities. Megacities, built from scratch. The U.S. intelligence community is taking a look at the world of 2030. And it is very, very sci-fi.
Every four or five years, the futurists at the National Intelligence Council take a stab at forecasting what the globe will be like two decades hence; the idea is to give some long-term, strategic guidance to the folks shaping America's security and economic policies. (Full disclosure: I was once brought in as a consultant to evaluate one of the NIC's interim reports.) On Monday, the Council released its newest findings, Global Trends 2030. Many of the prognostications are rather unsurprising: rising tides, a bigger data cloud, an aging population, and, of course, more drones. But tucked into the predictable predictions are some rather eye-opening assertions. Especially in the medical realm.
We've seen experimental prosthetics in recent years that are connected to the human neurological system. The Council says the link between man and machine is about to get way more cyborg-like. "As replacement limb technology advances, people may choose to enhance their physical selves as they do with cosmetic surgery today. Future retinal eye implants could enable night vision, and neuro-enhancements could provide superior memory recall or speed of thought," the Council writes. "Brain-machine interfaces could provide 'superhuman' abilities, enhancing strength and speed, as well as providing functions not previously available."
And if the machines can't be embedded into the person, the person may embed himself in the robot. "Augmented reality systems can provide enhanced experiences of real-world situations. Combined with advances in robotics, avatars could provide feedback in the form of sensors providing touch and smell as well as aural and visual information to the operator," the report adds. There's no word about whether you'll have to paint yourself blue to enjoy the benefits of this tech.
The Council's futurists are less definitive about 3-D printing and other direct digital manufacturing processes. On one hand, they say that any changes brought about by these new ways of making things could be "relatively slow." On the other, they rip a page out of Wired, comparing the emerging era of digital manufacturing to the "early days of personal computers and the internet." Today, the machines may only be able to make simple objects. Tomorrow, that won't be the case. And that shift will change not only manufacturing and electronics – but people, as well.
"By 2030, manufacturers may be able to combine some electrical components (such as electrical circuits, antennae, batteries, and memory) with structural components in one build, but integration with printed electronics manufacturing equipment will be necessary," the Council writes. "Though printing of arteries or simple organs may be possible by 2030, bioprinting of complex organs will require significant technological breakthroughs."
But not all of these biological developments will be good things, the Council notes. "Advances in synthetic biology also have the potential to be a double-edged sword and become a source of lethal weaponry accessible to do-it-yourself biologists or biohackers," according to the report. Biology is becoming more and more like the open source software community, with "open-access repository of standardized and interchangeable building block or 'biobrick' biological parts that researchers can use" – for good or for bad. "This will be particularly true as technology becomes more accessible on a global basis and, as a result, makes it harder to track, regulate, or mitigate bioterror if not 'bioerror.'"
Some of the Council's predictions may give a few of Washington's more sensitive politicians a rash. Although the Council does allow for the possibility of a "decisive re-assertion of U.S. power," the futurists seem pretty well convinced that America is, relatively speaking, on the decline and that China is on the ascent. In fact, the Council believes nation-states in general are losing their oomph, in favor of "megacities [that will] flourish and take the lead in confronting global challenges." And we're not necessarily talking New York or Beijing here; some of these megacities could be somehow "built from scratch."
Unlike some Congressmen, the Council takes climate change as a given. Unlike many in the environmental movement, the futurists believe that the discovery of cheap ways to harvest natural gas are going to relegate renewables to bit-player status in the energy game.
But most of the findings are apolitical bets on which tech will leap out the furthest over the next 17 years. People can check back in 2030 to see if the intelligence agencies are right – that is, if you still call the biomodded cyborgs roaming the planet people.