La Nina is here. But how big will it get?
The NCEP NOAA forecasts suggest it might be so big, it’s historic — stronger and colder than anything since possibly 1917. (Then again, the Australian BOM are saying it’ll be a bit weaker than the last one.) But as Frank Lansner points out, the NCEP model got it right last year when many others were not even close.
Lansner has spotted the uber cold forecasts of NCEP. By March next year their models are telling them the Pacific Ocean (section Nino 3.4) will be 2.5 degrees below average. The forecasts are so unusually cold, some of the model runs don’t even fit on the graph. (Warmistas must be quaking at the thought of a blockbuster cold northern winter. Bring out your “warming causes cooling” memos.)
If conditions do reach 2.6 degrees below average, that would make the ocean surface temperatures in that zone, colder than anytime in the last 60 years. It would be the La Nina to almost match the strength of the 1998 El Nino anomaly (2.8K) that set records all over the world.
[Source: page 22 of this NOAA presentation]
See Frank Lansner’s post on Hide the Decline for a comparison of model predictions.
CFS/NCEP seems to be the model with far best succes in recent years, and thus, it is truly interesting that the CFS/NCEP predicts a historic Super La Nina just few months ahead.
1) This will lead to the largest temperature decline in many years.
2) If true, we have demonstrated that practically all models used cannot predict even extreme cold just a few months in advance…
Lansner was asking the question on Sept 11, 2011. Is another big La Nina on the way? See how that graph has changed!
I regard this post How The deep oceans drive the atmosphere that I did with William Kininmonth, to be one of the most useful informative ones I’ve done.
UPDATE: Baa humbug- genius – points out in comments that there are two types of NCEP forcasts. The raw one (above) and the Probability Density Forecast (PDF) below. The PDF below forecasts a bottom of -1.5 C and puts the swing up out of LA Nina conditions in January which is more likely that the raw forecast which is predicting an April upswing. Baa points out that ENSO swings are Jan or July things, not April occurrences.
The SOI was higher last October than it is now: