Culling wild boar and removing the carcasses quickly can have a big impact on controlling African swine fever, according to modelling work carried out by scientists in Scotland and Spain.
Professor Andy White and his Heriot-Watt University mathematics research team worked with the SaBio group of the Spanish Game Resources Institute (IREC), UCLM & CSIC (Ciudad Real, Spain) to develop the new model.
The research, the findings from which are reported in the Scientific Reports, models the transmission and persistence of ASF in wild boar in contrasting European scenarios.
Professor White said: “African Swine Fever can rapidly devastate pig populations – there are outbreaks in China, Poland, Belgium and the Baltic states at the moment. In China, it has wiped out around 40% of the country’s pig population.
“Wild boar transmit the disease and their numbers are on the rise in Europe. There are several populations in the UK and here too numbers are increasing.”
The mathematical model was used to understand the different ways that the virus could be transmitted.
“To match the data, we showed that infection needed to occur in three ways – through contact between susceptible and infected wild boar, through contact between susceptible wild boar and infected carcasses and via individuals that survive the initial infection, but succumb to the disease after several months,” Prof White said.
“Our new model also considered biosecurity measures that can help mitigate the spread of an outbreak.
“A combination of culling and the removal of infected carcasses is the most effective way to eradicate the virus without also eradicating the host population.
“It is important to act quickly – early implementation of these measures will reduce infection levels while maintaining a higher host population density. In some cases, this could prevent the virus from establishing in a wild boar population.”
The model also suggests that it may be easier to control ASF in warmer climates.
“Higher temperatures lead to faster degradation of infected carcasses, which also reduces the severity of an outbreak,” Prof White added.
In some regions, wild boar are supplementary fed to increase their density. The model suggests this should be avoided when ASF is a threat, as it leads to a more pronounced epidemic outbreak and persistence of the disease in the long-term.
The scientists reported the findings of their new model in Scientific Reports