BRITAIN MORE PROSPEROUS “IN”
We are economists who care about Britain and its future. We feel compelled to speak out on the risks of Leaving and opportunities from Remaining in the EU.
If Britain votes to Leave we believe that:
- A recession causing job losses will become significantly more likely due to the shock and uncertainty of Brexit. With interest rates near zero and debt still high, the Bank of England and Government would have limited ability to prevent such a recession.
- A drop in the pound and increased tariffs on imports will cause the costs of everyday goods to go up increasing inflation.
- Investment in the UK will drop harming innovation and future job growth.
- These impacts will fall most heavily on households with middle or below incomes.
- Less growth means less government revenue which means higher taxes and less to spend on services like the NHS.
Leave will say these points are ‘Project Fear’. We say they are ‘Project Reality’. The Leave campaign’s economics are built on dangerous fantasies. Leave say we will grow by unilaterally dropping our tariffs, but this would give up all of our negotiating power allowing other countries to raise tariffs and decimate our exporters. Leave also claim we will grow by freeing Britain from EU regulations. But most EU regulations for protecting workers, ensuring food safety, product safety, and a clean environment, would still be required to trade with the EU or US, and we’d want many of them for domestic reasons.
Leave have also misled the public on EU immigration. The UK unemployment rate today is 5.1%, significantly less than it was before EU enlargement – EU immigration hasn’t taken jobs. In fact many industries from manufacturing to restaurants, hotels, and agriculture would suffer labour shortages without legal EU workers. And EU immigrants pay billions more in taxes than they claim in benefits and so are a net contributor to the Treasury. Finally, countries outside the EU such as Norway, Switzerland, and Australia have higher net migration relative to their populations than the UK.
We are not alone in our views. Credible, independent institutions like the IMF, OECD, Bank of England, Institute for Fiscal Studies, and London School of Economics have provided similar warnings. An Ipsos/MORI poll showed that 9 in 10 professional economists think Brexit would hurt the economy.
The EU is facing major challenges and in need of reform. Some of us have been significant critics of the EU. But Britain is far better off “in” leading that reform than “out” and isolated. Modern 21st century economies thrive on connections, trade, and exchanges between people and ideas. Britain has historically been an open, trading nation, deeply connected to its closest neighbours in Europe. By voting Remain on 23 June you will be voting for a more prosperous, more secure Britain.
The link to signatories is here LINK1