Updated on 18 March 2014
The study published in the Journal of Infection has has flagged northern Vietnam as the next high-risk area for the spread of H7N9 Avian Influenza bird flu
Singapore: A new finding revealed from a mapping study conducted by researchers has predicted that Avian Influenza H7N9 will spread into Guangxi province. The study published in the Journal of Infection has also has flagged northern Vietnam as the next high-risk area.
The Chinese researchers, along with their US collaborators conducted the mapping study and plotted the locations of H7N9 cases and negative cases from China's flulike illness surveillance. Researchers have identified H7N9 risk factors with logistic regression, and used geographic information systems (GIS) to make maps that predicted H7N9 risk across Asia.
The same method using H7N9 cases reported in the spring wave of cases last year predicted that the virus would spread to Guangxi province, an area that borders northern Vietnam, in February 2014. In late January and early February, three human cases were reported from the province, including one involving a 5-year-old boy who got sick after an H7N9 infection was detected in his 41-year-old mother. The province's other patient is a 56-year-old woman who in late January was reported as its first case-patient.
Researchers noted that even though the map was constructed using cases reported during the spring wave, it was able to predict patterns during the second wave.
The report said that the model has predicted a high risk of H7N9 infections in humans in northern Vietnam. The team noted that Guangdong province, a hot spot for human and poultry infections, is within 200 kilometers (125 miles) of the Vietnamese border.