This week's discussion about predetermined elements and current conditions was done with Jiyao Zhang, with focus on demographic phenomenon.
Current Conditions and Predetermined Elements
- Current Condition: Aging Society & Low Birthrate in developed countries (than underdeveloped countries)
- Predetermined Elements:
- Change in intention to have children and active birth control
- Female labor participation
- Lower infant fatality rate and longer lifespan
How the Current Conditions Map to the Future
- Plausible Future Condition: Global migration in bigger scale that influences economic & social systems
- Current Elements
- More accessible and exposed to global info, which can result desire of migration and less attachment to nationality
- Inequality within a country is higher than the one across countries
- Gap is going to be bigger and bigger
- Example: Investor visa; money = power to achieve desire
- Example: Refugee Crisis, Chinese and Korean people who spend money overseas
- If domestic opportunities grow, less migration? (Japan)
- Developed countries become more active about accepting migrants due to their aging society and low birthrate, while natives’ preference doesn’t match their idea.
Example of bad predetermination:
- An Essay on the Principle of Population by Thomas Robert Malthus
- Malthusian Trap
- Published in 1798
- Population increases yet food production doesn’t
- Totalitarianism: decrease of low-income population to avoid overpopulation
- Main problem: interpreting economy system only in biological aspects without considering industrial revolution and improvement in agriculture technology.