energy demand by sector
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Latin America’s energy demand. These are shown in Figure 5.31 for both the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand almost doubles from the current 22,050 PJ/a to 40,740 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario a smaller increase of 34% compared to current consumption is expected, reaching 29,500 PJ/a by 2050.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main sources for growing consumption. This is due to wider access to energy services especially in the developing regions within Latin America (see Figure 5.32). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to an electricity demand of around 2030 TWh/a in 2050.
Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 605 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices. Employment of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for air-conditioning.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final energy demand for heat supply eventually even stagnates (see Figure 5.34). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 2,370 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will peak around 2020 and will drop back to 5,400 PJ/a by 2050, saving 51% compared to the Reference scenario.