Wednesday marks the first official day of spring, bringing a forecast for showers but not enough rain to help curb the pollen plaguing area allergy sufferers or an end to extreme drought conditions.
Though bright green new foliage began rippling across the landscape several weeks ago, Wednesday marks the first official day of spring, bringing a forecast for showers but not enough rain to help curb the pollen plaguing area allergy sufferers or an end to extreme drought conditions.
Even though it seemed to arrive early this year, spring begins technically on the equinox, the day when the length of the day and night are virtually equal, with Earth's axis neither leaning toward nor away from the sun.
In some ways, though, the seasons turned a little upside down over the past couple of months. The first two weeks of March produced even colder temperatures than most of the area saw all winter, said Matt Volkmer, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne. That trend is expected to continue for at least another couple of days, with lows in the mid-40s forecast for Thursday night.
By the weekend, however, temperatures may reach into the low 80s, while the clouds may linger a little longer, Volkmer said. Normal high temperatures for this week range in the mid-70s. As for the next couple of months, Volkmer said the climate outlook calls for slightly higher-than-normal chances for a warmer and drier spring.
Because neither of the two large-scale climate patterns El Nino or La Nina are prevailing in the Pacific Ocean, smaller climate patterns will drive the weather this spring, said Sean Luchs, meteorologist for the Florida Forest Service. Those "tend to change more quickly so they are not as predictable in the long run."
But, given that March is already one of the driest months of the calendar year, forecasters said this week that drought conditions could grow even more intense.
Traditionally, the local rainy season starts in late May or early June, Volkmer said. This year "we're hoping it starts in May."
Without rain to take the pollen out of the air even temporarily, typical seasonal allergy problems are worse this year, said Dr. Michael Diamond, a Daytona Beach allergy specialist.
For the second year in a row, the pollen seems to have arrived about a month earlier than normal, he said. As a result he started seeing "a lot" of patients suffering with allergy problems in January and the issues continue.
"We're seeing a lot of oak pollen and we're still seeing some cedar," Diamond said. "It (pollen) has been very heavy."
Overall, Diamond said problems seem to be worse today than when he began practicing in 1977.
"There's more pollen and it's coming out earlier," Diamond said. It's a phenomenon that some experts at national allergy conferences attribute to long-term climate change, he said.
Forest Service officials said the drought likely will also increase the risk of wildfire.
"We might get lucky," Luchs said. "We might get into a little pattern where we get a little (rain) every day, and that could hold conditions off a little bit."
Without it, said Timber Weller, a fire mitigation specialist, people "need to understand it's only going to get drier until the rains get here."
"People need to be more and more careful every day," he said.
To end the extreme drought conditions being felt across much of Volusia County and all of Flagler County, Volkmer said the area would need a pattern of daily rainfall in amounts ranging from a quarter- to a half-inch and higher.