Ganoderma boninense disease deduced from simulation modelling with large data sets of future Malaysian oil palm climate.
Palm oil is very important. This relates to the large economic return and the negative environmental impact threatening the sustainability of the industry. Malaysia is the second largest producer after Indonesia and reaps the benefits and faces some of the problems. Oil palms (OP) in Malaysia are susceptible to basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense, of major concern to sustainability. The methods for assessing this disease have not changed for decades and are prime candidates for Agriculture 4.0 technology. Application of modern climate computer models using big data sets and providing suitability for growth data for OP, indicate how OP will be affected detrimentally by climate change (CC) until the year 2100, which are employed herein to provide disease assessments. This is a novel approach. The methods provide information to assess the sustainability of OP in Malaysia. CC-related increased BSR are from (i) an increase in virulence of G. boninense and (ii) unsuitable climate making OP less resistant to BSR. Comparisons of regions for initial infection rates and OP climate suitability over 80 years are made herein. CC will not affect the level of the disease greatly until after 2050 from reduced OP resistance but the situation will deteriorate between 2070 and 2100. Remediation methods to ameliorate CC effects on OP and concomitantly reducing BSR are required. BSR will become increasingly more detrimental to the palm oil industry in the future.