The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) for European Storm Surge provides high quality climate data on the storminess in European coastal seas. This data will create awareness on changes in storminess and its impact due to climate change, and will support long-term decision-making processes for a variety of coastal sectors and issues. Such as the management of floods due to severe storm surge and wave overtopping, operations of flood control barriers, operations and maintenance (O&M) of offshore wind farms and other offshore assets, accessibility and operations of ports and coastal zone management.
The core of the service will consist of a high quality and consistent dataset of storm surge, tide and wave conditions, including the effect of sea level rise, for all of Europe’s coastal waters. This dataset will consist of a historical reanalysis and a selection of climate projections. From this dataset a number of Climate Impact Indicators (CII’s) are derived, a selection of which are shown in the below table. Through these CII’s, the various climate projections can be compared with the historical baseline to assess the relative impact of climate change.
Furthermore, the usability of this dataset to run more detailed local models in order to derive a further set of sector specific CII’s is showcased by a number of use cases. These use cases also provide insights and working examples of the dataset and indicators. They consider a variety of coastal sectors and issues such as flooding due to severe storm surge and wave overtopping, industrial sectors such as offshore wind, harbour and ports, as well as coastal erosion and dune safety. For each sector, a set of tailor made climate indicators is determined. E.g. In one use case we focus on evaluating climate impacts in British ports by looking at port and vessel operations and port infrastructure. This will help to determine effective strategies to mitigate climate impacts and risks in ports.
The use cases cover various coastlines and different parts of the oceans and seas in Europe, such as the North Sea (Dutch coast), the Irish Sea (Dublin), the Atlantic Ocean (Galway), the Baltic Sea (Copenhagen) and the Mediterranean (Venice).
Data and tools
The core of the service will consist of a high quality and consistent dataset of storm surge, tide and wave conditions, including the effect of sea level rise, for all of Europe’s coastal waters. This dataset is generated using the Global Tide and Surge Model (Deltares) and the WAM model (ECMWF). It consists of a historical reanalysis based on ERA5 and a selection of IPCC climate projections: RCP 4.5 (for period 2040-2070) and RCP 8.5 (for period 2070 – 2100).
From this dataset, a number of Climate Impact Indicators (CII’s), such as extreme high waters, exceedance percentiles and changes in tidal levels are derived for all of Europe’s coastal waters. These indicators, together with the underlying dataset, will become available through the Climate Data Store (CDS).
Furthermore, the usability of this dataset to run more detailed local models in order to derive a further set of sector specific CII’s is showcased by a number of use cases. For example, the impact of changes in storminess on the O&M of offshore wind farms is assessed through a specific set of indicators derived from the core dataset. Similarly, the feasibility of nesting local models in the core dataset for further flood modelling and refinement is proven through a number of cases. A number of these CII’s will become available in the CDS, to be calculated on the fly for these use cases. Others will become part of best practise guidelines on how to use the core dataset to derive further sector specific CII’s.
How it works
Through the CDS, users will be able to select points of interest along the European coastline. At these points, they will be able to retrieve or visualize the core data, and a selection of CII’s derived from these data. Some of the CII’s will be calculated on the fly, others will be precomputed. Subsequently, they will be able to intercompare these CII’s between the baseline (historical reanalysis, present climate) and the available climate projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), to assess relative changes. This way, users will be able to assess, for example, whether the likelihood of extreme storm events will increase, whether changes it the lowest astronomical tide will occur, or whether metocean conditions will be affected by climate change.
The CDS will also indicate where local use cases have been carried out, will give background information with regard to these use cases, and how they can serve as best practise examples for further usage of the data, and will give access to a selection of CII’s derived from these use cases. Similarly to the core dataset, this will allow users to intercompare the CII’s between the baseline and the available climate projections, to assess relative change. For example, whether flood control barriers will need to close more frequent due to climate change, or whether weather windows for offshore activities will be affected.
The development of the C3S for European Storm Surge is coordinated by Deltares (The Netherlands). Other partners involved in its development are JBA Consulting (United Kingdom), DMI (Denmark), CNR-ISMAR (Italy) and UCC (Ireland).