Post by duwayne on Aug 29, 2016 19:04:49 GMT
While I have not attempted to set up the problem and do the math, I see this as an input/output balance problem.
Aug 29, 2016 1:03:53 GMT @codewhacker said:The solar drop over 24 has not been that big and the cycle is over, so if 25 stays close to 24 it will turn into a meh event. I don't see the cold.
For 70 years the oceans have been absorbing more energy than they have been releasing as a result of energetic solar cycles.
IF a less-energetic solar cycle results in a situation where energy reaching and being absorbed by the surface is less than the amount
of energy being released to the atmosphere, then the battery is being drained day after day, year after year. If the following solar cycle
is the same, then the drain on the battery continues. And temperature continues downward.
In this way the drain on the energy balance in the system continues until input again exceeds output. We just don't know where
that balance is. Our ignorance has preceded us. If we're not not careful, we will have to hire a climate priest to solve our problem.
Perhaps I am missing something.
Here’s my simplistic understanding of Solar activity and its effect on Global Temperatures.
Photons are particles of energy which travel at about 186,000 miles per hour. The sun generates astronomical amounts of these massless particles via nuclear reaction. (E = MC Squared). A huge number of these particles hit the earth every day after 8 minutes travel from the sun.
When the photons from the sun hit the earth their energy warms the earth a little.
But the earth also emits photons and since there is very little nuclear generation here, these photons come from stored energy. As the earth’s temperature rises it emits more photons until an equilibrium is reached at which time the total photon energy leaving the earth equals the total amount hitting the earth.
The key point is that the earth is not keeping all the extra photon energy from the more active sun. It uses a little energy to increase its temperature a smidgeon. Then it emits essentially pretty much all the photon energy as it gets.
The extra photon power from an active sun at Solar Cycle Maximum versus Solar Cycle Minimum requires only about a 0.1C increase in the earth’s average global temperature to offset the increased photon incoming. Once that temperature increase takes place very little net energy is absorbed from the more active sun.
Note that this doesn’t preclude widely differing temperatures over the earth’s surface. And it doesn’t preclude the earth from continuing to use a little of the energy it receives from the sun to replace heat lost from the surface to the subsurface. But there’s not much driving force here since the temperature change from the active or inactive sun is considerably less than 0.1C almost all the time.