The mission NASA hopes won't happen
By Traci Watson, USA TODAY
Two years after space shuttle Columbia disintegrated as it returned to Earth, NASA is preparing to launch two shuttles this spring. But the agency desperately hopes one of those flights never gets off the ground.
The flight nobody wants to launch would be ordered only if the first shuttle blasted off and ran into so much trouble that its crew had to be rescued.
Such a mercy mission would be dramatic, the most daring trip in the history of space exploration, but it could also force NASA to break its own safety rules. And it would end the USA's ability to send astronauts into orbit for years, even decades.
A rescue attempt would require ditching the first shuttle in the sea, though the $3-billion vehicle is one of only three shuttles left. That would likely end the shuttle program: It would be nearly impossible to sustain with two shuttles.
"If that scenario evolved ... I would be very surprised if Congress would let us continue the shuttle program," says Andrew Thomas, an astronaut on shuttle Discovery, which is scheduled for launch as early as May 15. "It would be very hard to justify."
Any rescue flight also would likely doom the half-built International Space Station, because the station can only be finished through an active shuttle program.
Why has NASA spent two years preparing for a far-fetched rescue mission that space officials admit is risky? The answer can be traced back to the grief and responsibility NASA staffers felt after the Columbia shattered into pieces in 2003, killing the seven astronauts.
An investigation determined that during launch, a piece of debris had bashed in a portion of Columbia's wing. Engineers quickly learned of the blow but didn't realize that it jeopardized the mission.
Even if they'd recognized the severity of the situation, they weren't prepared to take action. Transcripts of meetings during the mission quoted mission manager Linda Ham saying "there isn't much we can do about" possible damage.
Certainly the crew couldn't fix the wing: They had no repair kit. And NASA had given no thought to procedures for rescuing the astronauts from space.
But independent investigators soon dispelled any beliefs that a rescue would not have succeeded. The investigators' report, published seven months after the accident, noted that the disaster occurred as workers were putting the last touches on shuttle Atlantis for a launch scheduled for the following month. That made rescuing the Columbia crew with Atlantis "challenging but feasible," the report said.
Haunted by the Columbia tragedy
Less than a year after the report came out, NASA officials formally approved the idea of a rescue mission. "The (NASA) administrator said he never wanted us to be in the position of saying 'there was nothing we could do,' " deputy shuttle manager Wayne Hale said.
That decision has the potential to launch NASA into a new era: the age of the high-stakes space rescue — a feat that so far has been seen only in the movies. "We are not perfect, as our accidents have shown us," says former astronaut Bryan O'Connor, NASA's safety chief. "We've got to have prudent (rescue) capabilities."
Recent events have underscored the need for a rescue option. NASA officials said last month that they aren't yet confident in new methods for fixing a shuttle in orbit. Without viable repair methods, the only way to rescue a marooned crew would be through a second shuttle.
The first mission for which a rescue could be launched is Discovery's flight, which is also the first since the Columbia accident. The crew of seven will take supplies to the space station and test methods for inspecting and fixing the shuttle's heat shield.
Workers have their hands full outfitting Discovery with upgrades prompted by the accident. They've added wing sensors to detect impacts. They've redesigned the fuel tank, the origin of the debris that slammed into Columbia. And they've lengthened the robot arm so it can sweep the shuttle's skin, looking for damage after launch.
Preparing two shuttles at once
Adding to the load on the shuttle workforce is the need to simultaneously prepare Atlantis for a possible rescue launch. In case of disaster, Atlantis would bring home the Discovery crew.
Working on two shuttles at once is not unusual for NASA. But it is unusual for NASA to prepare two shuttles to launch a month apart, as a rescue mission would require. To stay on schedule, NASA had to pull workers away from servicing the third remaining shuttle, Endeavour. "It's really tough to have those vehicles lined up that close together," says Steven Lindsey, the astronaut who would command Atlantis if a rescue were needed.
If Discovery were damaged during launch or in orbit, Mission Control would determine whether the shuttle is capable of safely bringing the crew home. If not, the astronauts would be forced to take refuge aboard the space station and wait five weeks for Atlantis and its crew of four to come get them.
The damaged shuttle would have to be jettisoned before a rescue vehicle could arrive, because the station cannot accommodate two shuttles. Mission Control would command Discovery to unlock from the station and fire its steering jets, which would send the vehicle plunging down into the atmosphere. If all went as planned, the remnants would splash into the Pacific Ocean far from any land.
Getting rid of the old shuttle would be straightforward. Sustaining the astronauts on the space station would be dicey. The station in its current state is only meant to house three people. With the seven-member shuttle crew plus the two-man station crew living there, it would be overflowing.
Exercise in space is vital for good health. But a crew waiting for rescue would have to be sedentary, to save oxygen. The crew would get only half-rations of food: 1,000 calories a day, about the amount in a Big Mac and small milkshake.
According to the most realistic estimate, nine people could survive 45 days on the space station, station manager William Gerstenmaier says. That leaves little wiggle room to accommodate the 33 days needed to launch a rescue shuttle and the two days the rescuers would need to reach the station.
The man who will be in command of the space station when Discovery launches said recently that he has serious doubts about the use of the station as a haven. "It's going to be difficult," Russian cosmonaut Sergei Krikalev said. "The station cannot sustain in this configuration for a very long time."
Mission could end the program
While the astronauts were squeezing into the space station, NASA would rush to get Atlantis into shape for a rescue launch. By working around the clock seven days a week, technicians could have Atlantis — which is scheduled to fly in July — ready about a month after Discovery's liftoff. In such an emergency, NASA would consider setting aside some of the safety rules instituted after the Columbia accident. A requirement for good lighting conditions during launch, to ensure clear photos of liftoff, could be waived.
The precise cost of a rescue flight is difficult to know. But shuttle flights generally cost more than $400 million each, according to the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress.
After Atlantis and its rescue crew arrived at the station, the stranded crew would board the newly arrived shuttle. They would then ride home in reclining seats, custom-built for a rescue mission, that would lessen the effects of returning to Earth's gravity and allow Atlantis to carry 11 people instead of the normal seven. That is, if all goes well.
"There is always the possibility that you get a major anomaly that makes it difficult to launch the second flight," says Michael Wetmore, shuttle-processing manager. "If there were a significant failure, there is not a lot of (time) to work through that."
Wetmore also acknowledges that the decision on sending a rescue squad would be painful, unless NASA officials were certain the emergency vehicle wouldn't meet the same fate as the first one. The decision would be made by the NASA administrator, who normally stays out of mission management.
"The toughest part ... (will be) understanding what happened the first time and why this next launch is going to be any safer," Wetmore says. "How much risk do you take with an additional crew to save seven lives?"
It's so difficult to prepare for a rescue that NASA ultimately may abandon the idea. Officials will re-evaluate the need for a rescue option after the second shuttle flight, currently scheduled for July.
Despite the risks, a panel of safety experts seems inclined to give final approval later this year to pursuing a rescue option.
"Overall, the approach appears to be sound for the use that they have indicated and the contingency nature of it," says Richard Covey, the panel's co-chairman. But he adds that the panel hasn't finished reviewing NASA's rescue plans.
NASA officials admit that a rescue would be risky. But they say that it's better than no option at all. "We are preparing for a flight that none of us wants to ever fly," Lindsey says. "But it's there as an absolute last resort if everything else we tried failed."