Only two pools of warmer than normal waters exist across the Equatorial Pacific as of the latest analysis, yet another indication that this El Nino may not survive into the winter. Latest model guidance continues to trend weaker than what was being forecasted earlier, in terms of the El Nino.
Also of major interest is the presence of a very large pool of very cold temperature anomalies just about 200 meters under the waters of the El Nino. These cold anomalies have quickly strengthened in recent weeks, prompting extensive fears of the El Nino being destroyed by this. However, physics states that warm air rises and cold air sinks, and this is the same with water. Thus, the colder waters are encouraged to stay below the El Nino, but are not forced. The next several weeks will be crucial in terms of watching this cold pool do its thing.
I am tentatively keeping my prediction of a weak El Nino for the winter, but as we move through Fall, and the atmosphere continues to respond unfavorably to the El Nino, or if the cold pool grows further, the El Nino is seriously at risk for staying alive through winter.