Deaths will increase in most major regions, particularly in Asia
FRANCE – Premature deaths in the world due to pollution air, which was 2,933,000 in 2010, will double or even triple by 2060 if current trends continue without prevention. This study was published by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Overall, pollution cut 1% global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2060, ie the equivalent of 2.6 billion dollars annually due to days off work, health costs and declining agricultural productivity, said OECD.
The impacts will be very unequal between some regions, which are explained by the different levels of contamination.
The largest given in relative terms in the Caspian region where GDP will be cut by 3.1% in China (-2.6%), between -2 and 2.7% in some European countries of the former Soviet bloc and Russia (-1.7%).
It will be between -1% and -1.5% in most of the other countries in Southeast Asia (including India), Middle East and North Africa.
By contrast, the effect of production cuts will be less than 0.5% of GDP in Western Europe, North America or Latin America, as well as in Australia, New Zealand or South Africa.
The authors of the report indicated that out of the 2,933,000 premature deaths in 2010, attributed to air pollution, 905,000 were from China.
By 2060, the number of deaths in China will rise to range at 2,000,000 – 2,065,711, while the world total will be 6,000,000 – 9,162,043.
In absolute figures, premature deaths also increase in most major regions, particularly in Asia.
Among the few exceptions to that rule, are the four largest countries in the European Union (Germany, UK, France and Italy), where it is expected that 111,000 premature deaths in 2010 deaths will reduce to 89,000 – 95,000 annually by 2060.
In relative terms, the death rate per million inhabitants is going to increase in China, from 662 in 2010 to 1,563 by 2060, by far the largest of large areas covered in the study.
There will also be a high rate of mortality from air pollution in South Korea (1,069 deaths per million inhabitants, compared with 359 in 2010), the Caspian region (1,061 from 558), India (945 from 508), Russia (806 from 826) and Japan (755 from 468).
The lowest levels are expected in Australia and New Zealand (65 premature deaths per year in the horizon by 2060, compared with 77 in 2010), sub-Saharan Africa (167 from 224 in 2010), Mexico (269 from 122) , United States (293 from 299), the big four EU countries (319 from 412).
The OECD also assessed the costs in terms of welfare loss by air pollution, rising from $3 billion in 2015 to a range of between $18 and $25 billion by 2060.
In per capita terms, this means an increase of $500 per person in 2015 to about $2,800 by 2060.
These calculations were made on the basis of projections of some major pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX) and black carbon (BC).