This week Japan reported that the severity of its nuclear crisis has risen to that of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.
Given that Japan was twice hit by nuclear bombs and now continues to undergo the unfolding Fukushima disaster, it’s reasonable to assume they might now be asking what their alternative options are for energy.
Prior to the disaster Japan, which derived 27 percent of its electricity from nuclear energy in 2009, had planned to increase its electricity output from nuclear sources to 50 percent of its total usage by the year 2030. This is in part because of nuclear’s non-existent carbon footprint, and partly because Japan has poor natural resources.
The Breakthrough Institute blog has written a nice overview of some options Japan has to wean itself off nuclear power by the year 2030, if that is what the country chooses to do in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.
Nuclear reactors like the one at Fukushima are not so easily replaced.
The short answer is that transitioning to coal, a mix of natural gas and coal, or all natural gas would substantially increase the carbon dioxide emissions of Japan while substantially reducing its trade surplus.
What about wind or solar energy as alternatives for an island that takes environmental policy seriously? According to the analysis:
To avoid these emissions increases and replace lost generation through solar power, Japan would have to generate 568 million kWh of solar power annually. With an assumed capacity factor for the country of 15 percent, this would require an installed solar capacity of 432 GW, more than four times the country’s planned goal of 53GW of solar PV capacity by 2030. Installation of this solar PV capacity would cost an estimated $2.16 trillion dollars, and cover roughly 2.77 million acres.
Replacing Japan’s 2030 nuclear plans with generation from wind installations would require 568 million mWh of wind energy, a significant increase from the 3.57 million mWh currently generated by the country’s wind installations.
The installation of this 324 GW of wind turbines would cost around $798 billion, and would require 81,141 acres. Again, this number represents the area taken out of production on a wind farm, but the wind farm itself would need to be as large as 2.8 million acres.
Setting aside the costs, this area for solar or wind farms is equivalent to about one-third of the country’s arable land.