We are highly dependent on fossil fuels, which supply 81% of the world's energy.1 There are plenty of fossil fuels left in the ground, but we have already used up a large proportion of the highest quality reserves - those which are relatively cheap and easy to extract. The best remaining oil fields are concentrated in a small number of countries. Other countries will be increasingly forced to rely on smaller, deeper, more remote oil fields with more complex geology, and on low quality unconventional sources such as tar sands and shale oil. Extraction will be more expensive, energy-intensive and environmentally damaging, especially with expansion into sensitive areas such as the arctic, deep seas and rainforests. As a result, we face a future of rising oil prices, more frequent supply disruptions and oil-related conflict. Similar trends are seen for gas and coal, with a shift to more environmentally damaging options such as shale gas and lignite as higher quality reserves are depletedClimate policy can help to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels - firstly by reducing energy use through energy-saving measures, and secondly by diversifying the energy supply to include a mix of sustainable sources. This can deliver co-benefits including lower and more stable prices for energy services in the long term, reduced expenditure on fuel imports and safer, cleaner energy.
Cutting our reliance on fossil fuels will help to avoid the damage associated with extracting, processing and transporting them - including oil spills such as the Deepwater Horizon disaster, coal mine accidents, gas leaks and the visual impact of opencast coal mines (especially for 'mountain-top removal').
There are a number of potentially significant conflicts between climate policy and the goal of providing safe, secure energy.
Carbon capture and storage exacerbates energy security problems because it increases fossil fuel consumption per unit of delivered energy by 25%.
A high share of variable renewables such as wind and solar presents a challenge for balancing supply and demand. This can be tackled by encouraging a diverse mix of renewable sources, and investing in energy storage, electricity grids, control systems and smart demand management.
Nuclear power can improve energy security provided that uranium supplies are secure, but it has other safety and security impacts including the risk of weapons proliferation and terrorism, the risks of nuclear accidents and the problems of long term waste disposal. Fourth generation reactors could help to improve these problems in the long term.
Other potential conflicts include the high land, water and energy demand of biofuels, the visual impacts of wind turbines and the impacts of large hydropower schemes.;
Fossil fuels are becoming increasingly scarce and expensive, but if we turn to unconventional sources to solve our energy security problems we risk becoming locked in to an unsustainable energy infrastructure, as well as suffering increasing environmental damage.
Reducing our reliance on fossil fuels can help to provide a safer, more secure and more affordable energy supply in the long term. There will be high initial investment costs, but in the long term the costs of renewable energy will fall while the costs of fossil fuels will continue to increase.
Links to other co-benefits pages
- Cleaner air: reduced pollution from fossil fuels
- Sustainable forests, food and farming
- Less waste:a resource-efficient economy
- Stronger economy: long-term stability and prosperity
- Health and well-being: benefits of a low-carbon lifestyle
- Summary table
- Comparison of policy options
- A tale of two strategies
- Policy recommendations