Researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory say that increasing temperatures in California will damage yields of almonds, walnuts, oranges, avacados and table grapes. These crops are long-lived and are only planted once every 25-40 years. This could expose them to a projected temperature change of two to four degrees celsius over the next 45 years.
David Lobell, the lead author of the paper explained, "The impacts are based on the assumption that farmers do not move to other locations with more favorable climates. With long-lived perennial plants, moving to another region within California is somewhat limited."
There is still hope though, the current models do not yet factor in the important effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, changes in farming practices or changes in the physiological processes of the plants to adapt.
The paper was published in the journal Agricultural and Forest Meterology and will be joining CAB Abstract’s existing coverage of the field shortly.