The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published a summary of its Synthesis Report, bringing together the findings of various reports released during its sixth assessment cycle (from 2015). It provides a comprehensive summary of climate impacts, future scenarios and the opportunities to scale up climate action.
We talk a lot about limiting average global temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels. In Paris (COP21), discussions centred on holding the increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. Glasgow (COP26) kept 1.5°C target alive. The Sharm el-Sheik Implementation Plan (COP27) reiterated that “the impacts of climate change will be much lower at the temperature increase of 1.5°C compared with 2°C” and resolved “to pursue further efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.
So are we on track? The answer is undoubtedly no. The IPPC says that in 2011-2020, average temperatures were at 1.09°C (1.59°C over land). Without making further changes, a global warming increase of 3.2°C by 2100 is predicted. As the planet gets hotter, the effectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation will reduce.
The report describes the impacts on climate vulnerable areas and urban areas, noting that “climate change has caused adverse impacts on human health, livelihoods and key infrastructure. Hot extremes have intensified in cities. Urban infrastructure – including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems – has been compromised by extreme and slow-onset events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and negative impacts to well-being. Observed adverse impacts are concentrated among economically and socially marginalised urban residents.
Having once again sounded the warning klaxon, what solutions are offered (in order of potential positive impact)?
The report highlights a number of response areas for mitigating climate change impacts, including:
- Deploying solar and wind.
- Reducing the conversion of natural ecosystems.
- Carbon sequestration in agriculture.
- Ecosystem restoration, afforestation and reforestation.
- Reducing methane for coal, oil and gas.
- Efficient buildings.
In relation to urban settlements, the IPPC urges the consideration of climate issues in the design and planning of settlements, and advocates for policies that address the following:
- Encourage compact urban form.
- Bring jobs and housing together.
- Support public transport and active mobility (walking, cycling etc.).
- Promote efficient design, build, retrofit and use of buildings.
- Reduce energy consumption, consume fewer building materials and substitute them where possible.
- Electrify our energy demands (from renewable sources).
In discussing such responses, the report concludes that future settlements will need to scale-up efforts in a number of areas: consider climate mitigation/adaptation; contribute to positive human health and well-being; provide ecosystem services through green and blue infrastructure; and reduce climate vulnerability for low-income communities. Developments must integrate our physical, natural and social infrastructure if we are to meet our climate goals.
As proved a focus at COP27, finance will be key to mobilising change, as will collaboration between investors, businesses, regulators and nations. We continue to follow developments in this area with interest and highlight the opportunities for us all to play a part in transitioning to a more sustainable future. Read our latest Green Matters series for more on what the UK has planned to achieve its goals for environmental improvement and the changes this will bring.
About the author(s)
Ben Stansfield is one the UK's leading lawyers practising planning and environmental law. Ben is based in Gowling WLG's London office and brings with him a wealth of experience advising clients on the consenting and regulation of their projects and their compliance with environmental regulations and reporting standards.