The Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC) has decades of experience prognosticating how many houses, stores and factories might be built in central Ohio and what kinds of jobs they might bring and how many new and improved roads they might need and how that might make the population grow and how many new schools might be needed to accommodate them.
As the effects of climate change become detectable, a new wrinkle is added to any planning equation: What about water? Many scientists agree that the future holds wetter winters and springs and hotter, drier summers. That has implications for dealing with the stormwater that runs off of an ever-larger amount of paved surface, as well as ensuring that growing populations and remaining farms have enough water to thrive.
MORPC is smart to team with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and some member communities to start building an information base for this new variable. Just as computer-generated models of traffic flow can help guide the design of roadways, a reliable model for how climate-change-affected groundwater supplies and weather patterns impact development could help guide other planning decisions.
A reliable model isn’t a given; scientists worldwide don’t yet agree on a single version. USGS hydrologist Greg Koltun said the project with MORPC will draw on several different studies. Scientists at USGS already are testing preliminary models against observed water data from the past; if those models correctly “predict” what already happened, scientists will gain confidence.
To develop a water-impact model and put it to work, MORPC and the USGS don’t have to take a position on the debate over whether climate change is caused or worsened by human activity. They can determine that weather patterns have changed and do their best to help central Ohio plan for it.
It’s a natural fit for MORPC’s mission.