The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across NSW is mainly due to higher
than average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
Averaged over the coming three months, the chances are between 60 and
70% for higher than normal maximum temperatures northeast of a line from
Wanaaring to Sydney (see map).
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven February to
April periods out of every ten are expected to be hotter than average in these
parts of NSW, with about three or four out of ten being cooler. However, the
outlook skill at this time of year is low over much of this region, so this
outlook should be used with caution.
Contrasting this, the chances are only between 40 and 45% for higher
than average mean maximum temperatures in the southern border areas of the State.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During the February to April period, history
shows this effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent
along the northern and central NSW coasts, but elsewhere the effect is
only weakly or very weakly consistent (see background information).
The chances of seasonal minimum temperatures being higher than the median are
between 30 and 40% over the southern half of NSW, indicating
a moderate shift in the odds towards cooler than normal conditions.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures during the February to April period
to be weakly consistent over most of NSW, rising to moderate in much of the southern