Hurricane season ends today, having failed to live up to its initial billing as an intense six months of tropical storms.
Not that anyone is complaining.
In May, the National Hurricane Center in Miami predicted 13 to 16 named storms in the Atlantic, with eight to 10 growing into hurricanes, and four to six intensifying into "major" hurricanes of Category 3 strength (wind of 111 to 130 mph) or higher.
Hurricane guru William Gray at Colorado State University similarly predicted an above-average season, forecasting 17 named storms and nine hurricanes.
How did they get it so wrong?
Easy, said Chuck Watson, a Savannah-based hurricane researcher.
"The atmosphere threw us a curve," he said.
Coming off last year's hurricane-conducive La Niña conditions, atmospheric scientists expected a transitional year. Instead, there was an abrupt change by July to El Niño conditions, which tend to dampen tropical storm activity.
Unusual years like this one prove instructive, Watson said. In hindsight, climate researchers can see signs they missed.
"There were anomalies between surface pressures across the Pacific," Watson said. "We haven't seen that before, but we weren't looking for it."
All in all, 2006 was an average hurricane season. The nine recorded storms are close to the 150-year annual average of 11 storms a season.
The paths of those nine storms, however, made them forgettable to most of us. Only tropical storms Alberto (which passed over inland Georgia as a weak tropical storm in mid-June), Beryl and Ernesto impacted the United States. The first two produced minimal damage, while Ernesto caused about $100 million in damage in North Carolina and Virginia, according to an estimate from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University.
This is only the 11th year since 1945 that no hurricanes have made United States landfall. Ernesto - which all but bypassed the Georgia coast as a strong tropical storm in late August - was briefly a hurricane, but it was downgraded by the time it hit the United States.
Worldwide, tropical storm activity was considered average, with significant storms affecting Vietnam and the Philippines. An Aug. 11 typhoon that hit China forced the evacuation of one billion people, destroyed 50,000 houses and killed an estimated 3,000 to 4,000 people, said Watson, whose work includes tracking and damage estimates for both Pacific and Atlantic storms.
Following last year's disastrous storms, this relatively quiet season gave emergency managers the chance to talk to thousands of area residents about hurricane preparation, according to Phillip Webber, director of Chatham Emergency Management Agency.
"It gives you time," he said. "You're not staring down a storm so you have time to practice and to plan."
While 2006 provided new insights for scientists, its lesson for coastal residents is the same as always, Watson said. They need to focus not on any single year, but on long-term trends.
"It's a dangerous area, and we're going to get whacked one day," he said, "just not today."