When it comes to the weather, statistics and predictions oftentimes prove to be erroneous.
Planning a hike knowing that it will be a sunny day and ending up experiencing a heavy downpour is something that happens every so often.
Since you are a prepper and have more than one ace in the sleeve, you can tackle an unpredictable rainy or windy day with ease.
However, when it comes to important things like the hurricane season, you don’t want to take any chances.
And if you will blindly trust in NOAA’s forecast calling for a “near normal” hurricane season, then you might be in for a treat.
The national Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that chances of a fiery hurricane season this year are slim.
NOAA expects 9 to 15 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher to occur.
They predict that 4 to 8 might turn into hurricanes with winds exceeding 74 mph, and 2 to 4 of these are expected to whirl over the 111-mph threshold and become major category 3-5 hurricanes.
The outlook doesn’t look so grim. However, if you look on statistics, the line between a normal season and above-normal season is pretty thin.
NOAA predicts there’s a 40% chance of a near-normal season to happen this year, 30% chance of a below-normal season, and same percentage for an above-normal season to occur.
There are many factors at play that have led to these percentages. The two most important are sea surface temperatures and El Niño.
When the water temperature in the Atlantic are warm, storms have more fuel to develop. The warmer the waters, the fierce a storm may become. This aspect calls for an above the average hurricane season.
On the other hand, El Niño is a sign that a normal season is underway, because warm ocean water develops in central and eastern Pacific, therefore facilitating the perfect climate for hurricanes to form in the Pacific instead of Atlantic Ocean.
Even more, the wind patterns of El Niño generate extra wind shear at the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic, which cripples storm development in the area.
However, all aspects considered by NOAA shouldn’t be taken for granted, as lots of spontaneous phenomena occur in nature that could lead to unexpected and sometimes terrible outcomes.
If you are living in one of the hurricane danger zones, although the forecast says “near normal” this year, the best advice (and a rule of thumb if you ask me) is to expect and prepare for the worst.
Daniel Kaniewski, FEMA deputy administrator for resilience, outlines that preparedness is key during the hurricane season, if you don’t want to risk being caught off-guard by something unexpected.
“Preparing ahead of a disaster is the responsibility of all levels of government, the private sector, and the public. It only takes one event to devastate a community, so now is the time to prepare,” he said.
Don’t put your hope in the government in case a storm escalates and wreaks havoc in your area.
Kaniewski pointed some of the essential things to have in mind when expecting a storm. “Do you have cash on hand? Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance> Does your family have communication and evacuation plans?” Kaniewski
If you prepare in advance for a major disaster you won’t be taken by surprise if it unfolds.
You will also be less fearful in the wake of a superstorm.
The more people adopt this mentality, the better the outcome of a community after a major hurricane sweeps through.
If you are a conscious prepper, secure your protective measures in advance and then encourage others in your area to do the same.
This way there will be more prepared people that can lend a hand when disaster strikes instead of crying for help and expecting the government to come to the rescue.