The death of Fidel Castro marks yet another turn in the twisting path of US – Cuba relations. But if carefully managed, and with a view towards a positive outcome over the long term, President-elect Trump can employ a strategy that benefits Cubans, Americans, the business community, and regional stability.
When his death was first announced, much of the reaction was emotional, not strategic. Some Americans, including President-elect Trump, took to social media to mark Castro’s death by condemning his socialist views or his tyrannical assaults of property, liberty, and the human rights of his people.
Castro was both loved and reviled, but whether one sees Fidel Castro as a good or bad person is irrelevant to what must become the new US strategy on Cuba. To successfully navigate a post-Castro US-Cuba relationship, the US government and its leaders must not look to past grievances but look forward to cooperation and shared success.
When you travel to the island and meet Cubans, you come to understand that the main pillar of their identity is not about socialism. Their identity is defined, not unlike our own, around their independence. Independence is represented, above all, by poet and journalist José Martí. Fidel Castro’s revolution represents, to them, the assertion of their independence from external control. Whether it be because of colonial Spanish rule, American military rule, or US-backed kleptocrats, until Fidel, the Cubans did not feel that they owned their own country.
That distinction draws another conclusion that the Trump administration must understand: There is no counter-revolution in Cuba. It’s not as if the Castro family has been suppressing thousands of anti-socialist Cubans. Certainly the freedom of some Cubans has been curtailed, and their rights violated. But there is no counter-revolution waiting for a crack in the armor of the Castro regime presented by Fidel’s death to begin an overthrow of the government. Fundamentally, Cubans know that they didn’t flourish under Fidel, but they did maintain their independence.
Cuba begun reforming its economic policies a couple of years before the US –Cuba relations started to change. This demonstrates that Cubans do want to make adjustments to their system of government and way of life. Cubans do want to engage with the United States. But the US must allow them to make their own decisions. The dynamic of Americans forcing action on Cuban society will only lead to opposition and antagonism.
The death of Fidel is the beginning of a delicate moment in US – Cuba relations. The end of this moment will come when Raul Castro steps down in 2018. For the first time the Cuban people will be governed by leaders who were not part of the revolution. If President-elect Trump spends the next year appearing belligerent, threatening coercion, or making overt demonstrations of US power then he will give the Cuban people a reason to fear their financial and physical independence. The incoming leadership of Cuba will probably rise from the security establishment and revert to its own brand of nationalist antagonism towards the US.
But if the US remains diplomatically sophisticated and continues to engage without appearing to be a regional bully, then the next leadership of Cuba might be much more practical, pragmatic, and flexible: focusing on economic reforms that benefit the Cuban people and American companies.
President-elect Trump, the businessman, must see the opportunity in Cuba. He may know that American businesses, like airlines, have already invested hundreds of millions of dollars under the exceptions created by the Obama Administration. But some of President-elect Trump’s advisors are ideologically opposed to engagement and the tone of US engagement is more critical now, as Cubans prepare to move beyond the Castro family.
If Trump wants a big win on Cuba he should heed his business sense and look toward the future, not relitigate the battles of the Cold War. The business opportunity is enormous for Americans. The incoming president loves to negotiate a good deal, and opening up the US-Cuban relationship could be a great deal. This could be a big win for him, for America, and for Cuba.