The Center for Global Development recently released maps based on new data on the vulnerability of countries around the world to climate change. I’ve taken slices of two maps that show the latitudes where coffee is grown. Both maps rank agricultural productivity loss, with countries having the most impact in darker reds, less impact in oranges and yellows.
The top map shows risks due to physical climate change only. Coffee-growing nations (including those growing primarily robusta coffee) ranked at highest risk (top 15) for agricultural productivity loss due to the physical effects of climate change are Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bolivia, Burundi, Rwanda, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.
The second map takes into account vulnerability and adjusts these risks based on a given countries’ ability to cope with climate risks. All of the African countries remain in the top 15, with Burundi moving well up the chart (indicating that there are not policies and infrastructure in place to help farmers cope with climate change). Rwanda just leaves the top 15, but Ethiopia now makes the list. The Latin American countries — Bolivia, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti — all move well down the list, but Cuba comes in at 15.