Water part of Carlsbad population equation
What's the real population for the Greater Carlsbad Area?
That has been the million dollar question for the past few years. We know our permanent population is growing (faster than anywhere else in the state), and we also know that we have a significant temporary population.
It's not just idle speculation, either. Having a good estimate about how many people are actually in the area is important for bringing commerce to the region, but it is also an essential bit of information needed for planning infrastructure. Most importantly, it is critical for estimating future water use. Recently, a committee of community members set out to get an answer.
After examining our recent water use and dividing it by the average amount of water used per person per day, our estimated population appears to be around 71,500. That's an estimate, mind you, but it is a very good estimate based on real data. We are still looking at this topic from many additional angles using additional data, and we will continue to research this matter.
The Greater Carlsbad Area includes La Huerta, Spencer addition and other neighborhoods outside of city limits, along with the communities of Otis, Loving, Malaga and Happy Valley. It does not include Artesia or North Eddy County.
How did we come up with that population number? We looked at water use, one of the most carefully-regulated statistics out there.
First, some research was done to find out how many gallons of water the average person uses a day. The United Nations Development Program estimates that the average U.S. resident uses 151.9 gallons per capita per day. That's an estimate that includes our personal consumption (such as showers and toilet flushing), but also includes water used in our city parks and at our restaurants, averaged out among us. There are other official estimates from other sources that are lower, but we specifically picked the highest possible option in order to be conservative when we were calculating population, as you will see in a moment.
We then looked at local water use. Based on 2011-2013 statistics, the residents of the Greater Carlsbad Area use a total of 10,914,596 gallons of water a day. This is an apples to apples comparison with the United Nations estimate, because it includes commercial and residential use, but not industrial.
We divided 10,914,596 (the number of gallons of water used in a day) by 151.9 (the number of gallons used per person) and came up with 71,678 people. Again, that's an estimate, but we're comfortable saying that we have around 71,500 people taking showers or drinking glasses of water in or near Carlsbad on a daily basis. That includes permanent residents and temporary residents in hotel rooms or man camps.
Using a lower "gallons per capita per day" estimate would have actually given us a higher population estimate.
This is huge. We knew we were growing, but our estimates are now larger than we even projected. It means that the timing on the Double Eagle water project was essential, because we are growing a lot and if the growth continues we will need more water. Our Double Eagle process is starting on the final phase of an effort that provides a secondary source of water for Carlsbad's residents and will last long into the future.
It means that retailers will continue to take notice. Many chain restaurants and businesses want to see a population of 50,000 or more. We have more than 70,000 people in the immediate area. That includes around 54,000 people within Carlsbad's City limits.
It means that those new apartment complexes and subdivisions you see all around town aren't just a figment of your imagination. The Greater Carlsbad Area is definitely growing!
Let's give credit to where it is due. Thank you to all of the people who helped with this committee and our discussion on June 30. Representing the Carlsbad Department of Development were John Waters, Jay Jenkins and Mark Schinnerer. Robert Defer represented the Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce and Amanda Melvin represented Eddy County. City of Carlsbad employees joining our committee were Steve McCutcheon, Stephanie Shumsky, Luis Camero, Lavelta Jenkins, Councilman Wesley Carter and Jeff Patterson. Special thanks to John Waters and Stephanie Shumsky for their extensive efforts.
Carlsbad is a great city. We had a wonderful celebration on Independence Day and a fantastic opening of the Halagueno Arts Park on July 2. This community, and our surrounding area, has so much going for it — and we hope the 71,500 people nearby appreciate what we have to offer.
If you have any questions or suggestions, please call 575-887-3798.
"TAKE PRIDE IN CARLSBAD"