By Matti Vooro
A quite recent headline in our news warned that “Regions must brace for weather extremes: UN climate panel”. Apparently this will be the after-effect of global warming caused by man-made greenhouse gases. We can expect more frequent extreme events such as the drought in Texas and the Thailand floods because of global warming, they said.
It is strange that the IPCC panel should link recent extreme weather events to global warming because quite simply there has been no global warming to speak of for 10-15 years now based on the official climate data from the governments of the world [US /NCDC, ENVIRONMENT CANADA and THE EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY. Recently US meteorologist Anthony Watts showed that the continental U.S. has not warmed in the last 10 years, and in fact has grown cooler in the summer and colder in the winter. The climate data numbers come from the National Climatic Data Center.
Not only have the US temperatures been flat for the last 10-15 years, but a similar pattern is happening in Canada. The Canadian national annual, summer and winter temperature departures from the 1961-1990 averages have been flat for 10-14 years when measured on Excel linear trend and based on Environment Canada’s own data. Comparing today’s winter temperature departure with that of the period 1961-1990 can be misleading since the 1961-1990 period was low or cool phase of the planet’s 60 year cycle and any comparison will always show warming not due to man generated global warming, but due to natural and regular changes (30 years of cooler weather followed by 30 years of warmer weather) in the planets climate pattern. It is like comparing summer temperatures with winter temperatures, the summer will always show warming.
Regionally 7 of the 11 regions reported by Environment Canada showed declining or flat winter temperature departures over the last 10 years. The average winter departure was about 2°C between 1998-2011. Only the Atlantic Coast, Northeastern Forests and Arctic Tundra, Mountains, and Fiords showed rising winter temperature departures. But the North Atlantic Ocean heat content is dropping and so is the Arctic Ocean’s heat content.
The Northern Hemisphere, North Atlantic, North Pacific and East Pacific SST Anomalies are all dropping. It will not be long before the Atlantic Coast and the Arctic regions will show similar cooling as the AMO goes cool or negative. North America is more likely see much cold weather during the next 20-30 years rather than global warming of 3-6°C as predicted by the IPCC. The recent severe winter weather along Alaska and the US east coast was just a sample of what may lie ahead. This cooling has been building for a decade now. So how can global warming be causing current and future extreme weather events when global warming as predicted has not been happening for a decade and is unlikely to happen during the next 30 years since the world 60-year climate cycle is heading for colder weather due to changing ocean surface temperatures and changes in deep ocean currents?
Ocean SST as measured by PDO, AMO, ocean heat content and ENSO cycles and pressure changes as measured by AO and NAO are all pointing to a future cooling planet. AMO has gone negative in November 2011 for the first time since early 2009. Time will tell whether this is just the normal seasonal dip or a long-term pattern. This cooler AMO, if sustained through the winter, could signify cooler weather for the US east coast and Western Europe. Several severe storms have already happened this fall on both sides of the Atlantic.
So why are we pouring all this taxpayers money to solve a the non-existing problem as currently defined when the world is near financial collapse and there are so many more pressing problems in our world today? Any prudent leader should see we need to change our priorities.
Further evidence of global cooling
The five following graphs illustrate the lack of global warming in US and Canada.
CONTIGUOUS US WINTER TEMPERATURES, 1998-2011 per NCDC
North American snow extent as reported by Rutgers University
The North American snow extent has been increasing for 5 years in a row since the Pacific Ocean SST pattern started to show cooler water as measured by PDO. Already the 2011-2012 winter snow extent is greater than that of 2010-2011 winter by some 60% by week 45. Snow extent levels are approaching the record levels of the late 1970s.
Canadian winter, summer and annual temperature departures from 1961-1990. Averages for the years 1998 -2011
The annual trend of the departures as shown below indicates a flat or slightly cooling trend, and not global warming at all. Yes they fluctuate but that does not mean the trend is warming.
Canadian winter temperature departures from 1961-1990. Averages for the years 1998-2011
The winter cooling is especially apparent in the Canadian bread basket, namely the Prairie Provinces and their north half or the Northwestern Forests. Environment Canada reports in their Trend, Extremes and Current Season Ranking, 1948-2011[64 years] that the warming trend in these areas is 3.2 and 3.7 degrees C over the last 64 years. What is far more meaningful and not stated in their bulletins is that this area has been cooling for 10 years and very rapidly since 2006. The winter temperature departures dropped some 7°C between 2006 and 2009 alone and have been below or at the 1961-1990 averages for the last 3-4 years (see below). No wonder we are having all the spring floods from the extra melting snow in this area.
The cold winters are likely to continue and so are the floods for the next 20-30 years as the 60 year planetary climate cycle goes into its cold phase. We are having the winters like the previous cold cycle 30 years ago. Yet Environment Canada only talks about continuing global warming . on their web page. There is absolutely nothing about possible global cooling or warning to the Canadian public and businesses about possible flooding again, crop losses, infrastructure disruptions, etc from the pending weather.
In November, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO dropped to its lowest level since 1961 at -2.33. The 1961 level was -2.69. PDO is an after effect of the ENSO signal and reflects a spatial pattern of the amount of cooler water in the north Pacific. Negative levels are accompanied by much cooler weather in the Northern Hemisphere especially in North America. This index started to go negative in 2007 and based on historical patterns, it could be negative for the next 20-30 years, signifying cooler weather for the same period. This has already been apparent the last four years in the North American weather – especially the winters.