February 28, 2007
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Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 1, NUMBER 2, AUGUST 1988
Developing Policies for Responding to Climatic Change --A Summary of
Discussions and Recommendations of the Workshops Held in Villach...and
Bellagio...under the Auspices of the Beijer Institute, Stockholm (WMO/TD-No.
225), J. Jaeger (Beijer Inst.) et al., 53 pp., April 1988. Obtain in U.S. from
Environ. Defense Fund, 257 Pk. Ave S., New York NY 10010; in Europe from Beijer
Inst., Stockholm, or World Meteor. Org., Geneva.
The two autumn 1987 workshops summarized were initiated by the Beijer
Institute of Sweden, and the Environmental Defense Fund and Woods Hole
Oceanographic Laboratory in the U.S., in response to the recommendations of an
international conference in Villach, Austria, in 1985 which evaluated possible
climatic changes. (See following entry, and Kondratyev article in PROF. PUBS./OF
GEN. INTEREST, this Global Climate Change Digest issue--Aug. 1988.) They
were sponsored primarily by the WMO and UNEP, as well as other international
groups. In the first 1987 workshop, about 50 scientists and technical experts
examined how climatic change resulting from increases of greenhouse gases could
affect various parts of the earth, and the technical, financial and
institutional options for limiting or adapting to climate changes. The 24
participants of the second meeting used this information to explore policy steps
for the near term, and necessary institutional arrangements. During the
extensive review process, divergent views emerged on the emphasis of many
issues, which underscores the need for the policy research, which is among the
Three scenarios of possible climate change were developed, which project
temperature increases per decade ranging from 0.06° C (lower bound) to 0.8° C
(upper bound). The most extreme temperature increases would probably occur in
winter in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Resulting changes would
include withdrawal of summer pack ice, increased cloudiness, and changes in
tundra and permafrost, with many effects on human activities. Rainfall in the
mid-latitudes in summer may decrease. Sea-level rise would probably be at least
30 cm, enough to cause extensive coastal effects and damage. The main impacts in
middle latitudes is expected to be on forests; serious effects, like die-back
and species extinction, would not occur before year 2100 in the lower bound
case, but subsequent release of carbon to the atmosphere would intensify the
greenhouse problem. Semi-arid tropical regions would become drier, aggravating
existing problems of food and fuel supply.
A coordinated international response to the problem is essential, because
expected temperature changes are large compared to observed historic changes.
Strategies must attempt to limit the change as well as adapt to it; the
interaction with other manifestations of atmospheric and water pollution must be
considered. Reasonable limitation of greenhouse warming mandates significant
reduction in fossil fuel use. Among the other specific recommendations are:
critical examination of long-term energy strategies; the reversal of
deforestation; measures to limit greenhouse gases other than CO2; consideration
by appropriate organizations of a global law or convention on the atmosphere.
Report of the International Conference on the Assessment of the Role
of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse Gases on Climate Variations and
Associated Impacts (WMO No. 661), 1986. World Climate Program, World Meteor.
Summarizes the 1985 Villach workshop that prompted the policy evaluation
described in the previous entry.
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