Irish growing season to increase by between 30-40 days by 2050
Farmers are facing a substantial increase in the number of droughts and 50pc more heavy rainfall events by the middle of this century (2041–2060).
Temperatures are projected to increase by 1–1.6°C compared with the baseline period (1981–2000), with the largest increases in the east. It will see the length of the growing season to increase by between 30-40 days.
The shocking predictions are among the dramatic changes to Ireland's climate predicted in a recent report by Climate scientists at the Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC).
The projections of increases in temperature, heatwaves, heavy precipitation and dry periods/droughts along with decreases in frost and ice days will have direct and substantial effects on agriculture in Ireland by the middle of the century.
The Scientists used the national Supercomputer, 'Kay' to generate high-resolution climate projection data which allowed for a more detailed assessment of the potential regional and local effects of climate change. "The models show that the effects of climate change will not be evenly spread across Ireland; the East for example, will see higher overall temperature increases than the West.
Furthermore, the fine detail of the models results in a more accurate representation of the climate, and in particular, extreme events such as heavy rainfall, droughts and heatwaves," said ICHEC Climate Scientist and project lead, Dr Paul Nolan.
The results suggest a warming climate may present some positive opportunities for farming. However, the results should be viewed in the context that a warming climate will also result in an increase in pests as a and a decrease in frost and ice days, as cold conditions which are a key control mechanism for the survival of pests
According to Alastair McKinstry of the ICHEC, there will be an increase in the grazing season by about 12-15pc or about 30-40 days by 2050.
"The challenge is though with the extra rainfall, it's not clear how useful that will be. It's fine to talk about an extra 10 days of growth in February, but it's not very useful if the land is underwater," he said.
He explained that there would be a dramatic increase in the number of dry periods in the summertime.
"We are predicting 15 heat waves or dry periods over a 20 year period in the south by the mid-2050s if we continue on the current course," McKinstry said.
However, he also warned that Ireland would not experience a 'Mediterranean dry summer.'
"During a lot of the dry periods there will still be grey clouds and when we do get rainfall the warmer temperatures will mean more intense flooding," he said.
There will also be dramatic changes during the winter, according to McKinstry. He says that by the period 2050-2100 we start to see the end of snowfall as we know it.
"Frost days drop by about 90pc by the end of the century. The traditional cold winter where we had 60-100 frost days will be gone. Instead, we will have a stormy wet winter season," he said.
The scientists believe the work will be key in deciding the future direction of Irish agriculture.