A computer model suggests that new drug therapies and implementation of widespread screening and treatment will make chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection a rare disease by 2036. The article is being published in Annals of Internal Medicine (http://www.annals.org/article.aspx?doi=10.7326/M13-2199).
A disease is considered rare if it affects no more than one in every 1,500 people. Currently, approximately one in 100 people is infected with HCV, causing a substantial health and economic burden in the U.S..
In recent years, strategies for screening and treating HCV have begun to evolve rapidly. In 2012, The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended one-time screening for all baby boomers, who represent more than 80 percent of those chronically infected with HCV. In 2014, new highly effective oral HCV drugs were introduced, allowing primary care physicians and infectious disease specialist to treat HCV patients.
Researchers used a computer model to predict the effect of these new screening strategies and drug therapies on chronic HCV infection and associated disease outcomes. They found that implementation of birth-cohort screening and the availability of highly effective new therapies could make HCV infection a rare disease in 22 years. A more aggressive screening approach that includes one-time screening for all U.S. citizens could make HCV a rare disease a full decade earlier.