Hurricane Frances bears down on South Florida in September, 2004, one of the “analogue years” chosen by Colorado State researchers in this year’s pre-season forecast. (Credit: NASA)
UPDATE: Sandy, the October storm that wreaked havoc on the U.S. Northeast and triggered massive beach erosion in Palm Beach and much of the Florida East Coast, was retired today by the World Meteorological Organization.
Storm names are recycled every six years, but Sandy’s will be removed from the list due to the destruction the storm caused in Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas and the U.S. Sandy caused damage to the U.S. of about $50 billion — making it the second-costliest cyclone behind Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Sandy also caused 147 deaths including 72 fatalities in the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast. It’s the 77th storm to be retired from the Atlantic list.
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ORIGINAL POST: Part of pre-season forecasting for hurricane experts is to identify analogue years — those that had similar atmospheric conditions leading up to the June 1 to Nov. 30 tropical storm period.
Different forecasters sometimes choose different sets of years. The ones chosen by the Colorado State University research team Wednesday were a bit unsettling, since the infamous season of 2004 was included among the set of five. The others were 1915, 1952,1966, and 1996.
People tend to remember 2005 because it featured powerhouse storms like Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Wilma. But the Florida peninsula was hammered by three damaging hurricanes in 2004: Charley, Frances and Jeanne.
The 1915 season only had six named storms, but it was no picnic for Florida or the Gulf Coast. The first storm formed on July 30 and hit Cape Canaveral as a Category 1. The second was a Category 4 that slammed Galveston, Texas on Aug. 17. The fourth made landfall near Apalachicola in the panhandle on Sept. 4 as a Category 2, and the sixth hit near New Orleans as a Category 3.
There were seven tropical storms and hurricanes in 1952, the first a historical curiosity that walloped Miami with 60 mph winds in early February (the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm). Hurricane Able hit South Carolina in September as a Category 2, and the strongest storm of the season, Hurricane Fox, plowed across central Cuba, narrowly missing South Florida before pounding the Bahamas as a Category 4 in late October.
In 1966, Hurricane Alma socked the Florida panhandle in early June as a Category 2. Hurricane Inez, the deadliest of the season, reached Category 4 strength, raked Cuba, turned toward the Bahamas and then made a beeline for the Florida Keys. In all, there were seven storms that year.
The 1996 season was unusually active, with 13 named storms, nine hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Mid-Atlantic States and North Carolina saw lots of activity as well as the Caribbean, but Florida was largely untouched, with the exception of Tropical Storm Josephine which hit the panhandle with 70 mph winds on Oct. 6.
In last year’s April forecast, Colorado State chose 1957, 1965, 2001 and 2009 as analogue years. The only one that came close to 2012’s total of 19 named storms was 2001 with 15 named storms. CSU widely missed the mark with their 2012 April forecast, calling for 10 named storms, four hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. One of the main reasons for the miss was that the El Nino that had been consistently forecast never developed.
This year, in addition to CSU (18 named storms/ nine hurricanes/ four major hurricanes); and the U.K.’s Tropical Storm Risk (15/eight/three), The Weather Channel also issued a pre-season hurricane forecast. It calls for 16 storms, nine hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.